Replies to post #13 on Value Microcaps Pick Six Lotto 15

[2morrowsGains]

My Pick6 and why I picked them...

AEMD - Aethlon Medical Inc ($0.31)

Aethlon Medical's Hemopurifier...
"When blood flows through the cartridge, blood flows through approx 2800 hollow fibers that run through the center. The pores of all those fibers, or the walls of all those fibers, are porous in nature and it allows particles in the range of viruses and immunosuppressive proteins to separate outside of the fibers. And then once they separate outside of the fibers, they are then bound by infinity agents that bind almost irreversibly to these glycoprotiens that sit on the surface of the viruses regardless of species or strain of virus. And then other particles that were not selectively binding, get flushed back through the fiber walls and back into the normal circulation. So each pass through of the blood through the cartridge we're reducing the body burden of the virus." (Quote taken from the above interview.)

WKBT - Weikang Bio-Technology Group Co., Inc. ($3.09)

NICE Cash.
VERY LOW A/R.
Low liabilities.
Paying taxes.
Foward PE = 3.9
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1484042/000114420410028519/v185037_10q.htm

YHGG - Yasheng Group ($2.20)

Yasheng is finally getting caught up on their filings. Could be on the cusp of uplisting off the pinks.
"The company reported USD $739 million in revenue in 2009, and net income of USD $79 million."
http://www.yashenggroup.com/about.htm
FY2009 EPS = approx $0.51
Foward PE = approx 4.3.

CSGH - China Sun Group High-Tech Co. ($1.00)

VERY NICE balance sheet !!!
NICE Cash.
VERY LOW A/R.
VERY LOW liabilties.
Paying taxes.
Forward PE = 6.3.
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1298195/000101376210000791/form10q.htm

SGZH - Songzai International Holding Group, Inc ($4.70)

NICE Cash.
Low A/R.
Low liabilties.
Paying taxes.
Foward PE = 8.4 even after a decrease of approx 40% in sales which was primarily due to reduced production of Xing An Mines as a result of mine maintenance and retrofit projects which commenced at the end of 2009. The projects are expected to finish in July, 2010..
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1145761/000121465910001448/b51410010q.htm

CCLTF - China Ceramics Co. ($6.50)

Nice earnings reported in previous reports. Has a decent outlook and added 4 new distributors since December 2009...
https://webspace.utexas.edu/bdp366/CCLTF_Corp_Presentation_Final.pdf

And that's my opinion on my pick6 and why I picked them!

[nsomniyak]

THE NSOMNIYAK CHALLENGE - my own picks

AKRX - Akorn Inc. is a biotech company that has more than doubled since I originally bought it, and has held up pretty well in the market slide. It ran from 1.50 to 3.00 before the market woes, and 2.61 Friday seems a good entry. Just a nice solid little company and one I felt would be un-Sheepish.

CSGH.OB - China Sun Group - Battery maker in China. Big growth numbers, price has been absolutely hammered. I really like CSGH, but this was a backup pick for me (would have preferred something less sheepish).

LPIH.OB - China Longwei Petroleum - Hard to imagine China using less oil. LPIH also is likely to uplist to the Amex during the PSL15 time frame.

NEP - China Northeast Petroleum - Another stock with "China" and "petroleum" in its name. NEP is a long time VMC favorite, which has been absolutely killed with the slide in the market and in oil prices. They added a drilling unit that will start to add to results. Friday's 5.62 close is too low to pass up.

POZN (wild card) - this was a backup pick for me, as my original wild card failed to hold at .25 and was ineligible. Pozen just got FDA approval on their drug, then got hammered as opposed to the expected bounce. I think it is very oversold and will bounce back to at least 10 over the course of the contest.

RHGP.PK - Renhuang Pharmaceuticals - more than anything else to me just a pinkie with a positive PE. Nice rise since January until getting hit with the whole market recently

Looking back on it, I have 3 biotech/pharma companies and 3 oil/energy companies. That was not my advance strategy, just worked out that way.

I own all 6 of these in real life. I have added POZN, NEP, LPIH in the last week, and will probably add CSGH next week. I would have ended up less sheepish had not two intended picks slid below .25 during the last couple days.

[nsomniyak]

Reminder - take the NSOMNIYAK challenge and post a little bit of DD on your picks!

[nsomniyak]

NSOMNIYAK CHALLENGE - extension!

oops--I meant to give everyone a couple weeks to respond, and now realize I only allowed one week.

Deadline for responding to the Challenge is extended to Sunday June 6, 2010. If iHub applies a date of June 6 or earlier to your post you are in.

This post is in reply to the original NSOMNIAK CHALLENGE post for PSL15.

[northenlightsk05]

THE NSOMNIYAK CHALLENGE

For my original 6 picks for this PSL 15 contest, I own BEST, CHGY, FEEC and JGBO, but I don't own NIV and SECX. The reasons I picked them are listed below:

BEST - Traded less than net tangible assets and forward estimated PE=7. Business has been improving with continue increase in revenue. It just posted a good earning quarter.

JGBO - This is a uplisting play. I expected that JGBO would move to a big board listing during the contest period (It actually moved to Nasdaq listing last Friday). This may be the catalyst to boost the share price. Very low valuation with forward PE=4 and P/B less than 1. Majority book value is in cash.

CHGY - This is also a uplisting play together with low valuation. I expected that uplisting to AMEX would occur between July and September this year. It is traded at forward PE=5 for this year. It had appointed 3 independent board directors last Friday. It is getting closer to AMEX listing. It looks like a storng Q2 earning report next month with smooth coal production and higher coal price in Q2 per my discussion with the company.

FEEC - CBM business is booming in China and FEEC has the best CBM blocks in China with lots of gas (18 -24 TCF gas in place). Gas sale agreement is expected to be signed in June or July. Chinese gas reserve number may be available in Q2. Commercial gas sale is expected in Q3. SEC gas reserve may be available in Q4. The deal between Arrow and FEEC may be approved by Chinese Government in August. The short term risk is dilution by a possible equity financing.

NIV - Trailing price/earning less than 4 and Nasdaq listing. This is a cheap stock for one of the major producers of audio and viedo products in China. The business still looks good going forward.

SECX - Very low P/S =0.03 and a good earning report in the latest quarter is the reason I picked it for the contest. Technically, it formed a good base and any good news or earning number next Q may pop it.

Northern

[ghmm]

NSOMNIYAK CHALLENGE
Its always good to hear why other people made their picks (even if it was where their pet monkey through the darts) so here are mine.

FREE - This is a small bulk shipping company. They have less debt (though still a fair amount) then most. I am not too concerned about their debt especially if earnings and rates keep improving. In fact I think they are getting close to being able to buy another ship while maintaining the level of debt. I get a good sense of management knowing the business but am concerned they may be purchase happy and dilute at too low a price to make a purchase (especially with a couple of ships nearing an end of their useful life). Now on to the positives. The spot rates and BSDI index have generally been improving for some time and management has been doing a good job playing the spot market the past year or so rather then locking in a lower rate. I actually thought the stock would move much more on the Q1 results .09.

PPCO - Its been talked about on the VMC board but here is why I like it. There EPS will benefit from receiving the full royalty (ENDO was holding back 50% till some costs were recovered). Plus Opana ER sales are continuing to improve! I think .22 +/- in Q2 is very doable even with the proxy battle. The proxy fight doesn't concern me to me the bigger risk is an at risk launch of generic Opana ER. Additional upside could come from positive news on their Orphan drug (but I think data isn't likely till after PSL15 ends). A win on the patten front for Opana would be a real coup and skyrocket the stock. Also they have been signing nice little deals using their TIMERx technology. If one of these advances and turns into even half of an Opana the stock will really take off too.

TCCO - I've owned this stock for close to a year and my regret is not buying more of it a year ago. They provide secure communications products and have been mentioned on the VMC boards. They have preannounced a huge order that will be delivered this year so baring problems should do quite well in the next 3 quarters or so. The upside could come in a few areas. Management has been pretty conservative in PR's (I like conservative management) so you won't get forward looking expectations of more orders. But in addition to that possibility in reading the Q's/K they mention about trying to partner with radio manufacturers and they have added staff the past year so I think they are foreseeing continued growth.

LGND - Is the only pick I do not own (but secretly hope it does bad in the competition so I can buy it). They are an early stage drug discovery company with some nice partnerships. I think the stock has been hammered for a couple years and could recover well. I haven't invested (yet) because I'd like to do more DD and see how a couple of their partnered products turn out (one is approved and they are getting royalties the others I am interested in are in mid stage trials).

LMLP and MNTA I picked before and my reasoning hasn't changed since the PSL14 so anyone interested can see what I wrote then #msg-45342130