Replies to post #47 on A.I.M. Value Line Stocks (aim_VL)

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi LY, Please let your wife know I'm happy to hear of another
graduate. With 1000 to 1100 students there each year, we don't
accumulate graduates like the big State schools! I spent three
years in the Chemistry dept and one in the Business dept.
there. Graduated with a BS in Business.

I can't find CSCO's Timeliness to add to that graph, but it's
fun to look at some others.

 
 04/21/2000   Timeliness Rank    Price/share    Price now 
 - Solectron        #2              $41.00        $2.32 
 - Sanmina          #1              $52.00        $2.90 
 - Flextronics      #1              $51.00        $7.80 
  
 10/20/2000 
 - Cisco            #2              $51.00       $12.38 
 

Sadly by mid April these stocks were already well off their
highs for the year. Same with CSCO. I can't state exactly what
the Timeliness was for Cisco, but their major suppliers (shown
above) were all #1's or #2's as shown. I'm pretty sure CSCO
was also at the same time. On Oct. 20th of 2000 CSCO was still
ranked #2 even though the price had already dropped almost 38%
from its March, 2000 high. If you look back at the CSCO graph
and see when the price was $51 in Oct. you begin to get a feel
for how off base the Timeliness rank was.

For years I've felt that V/L's timeliness rank was out of
phase with reality. The PIC list was the first use of this
peculiarity. Right now the PIC list is showing an average loss
for the Buy/Hold portfolio of 23.8%. The AIM version of the
same account is down by 12.2% right now. Nine of thirty are
profitable as Buy and Hold; twelve are profitable as AIM
accounts. Considering that most of this portfolio has been in
place for over two years of BEAR market, I'd say we're doing
okay by being contrary to V/L's Timeliness rankings.

Best regards, Tom