Replies to post #95825 on Biotech Values

[Mpower]

I did not intend to give the impression that Sanofi expects a mL approval no earlier than 2013. My implication is that Sanofi is actively expecting that by 2013, they will have full fledged generic competition for Lovenox. (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE60Q0RE20100127)

Analysis:

More recently,the CEO of Sanofi when pressed on timing, would not dismiss the possibility of mL approval this year by the FDA ... He even went as far as to provide "qualified" guidance for 2010: "2010 business earnings per share to
grow 2-5 percent at constant exchange rates, excluding the
possible launch of a generic to its bloodthinner Lovenox" (http://www.bestgrowthstock.com/stock-market-news/2010/04/29/update-2-sanofi-keeps-forecast-after-q1-beats-consensus/)

and please see ("Sanofi CEO uncomfortable discussing the expected timing of generic competition to Lovenox (enoxaparin sodium) during a Feb. 10, 2010 earnings call.".... http://www.europharmatoday.com/2010/02/unknown-timing-of-lovenox-generics-complicates-sanofiaventis-outlook-.html


We should be cognizant that in 2009, the CEO of Sanofi was more pessimistic that generic lovenox would be approved that year, explicitly stating: lovenox approval in 2009 was a "low probability" (http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/04/17/afx6304279.html)

Conclusion
The CEO of Sanofi has been steadily changing his tune on the possibility of a generic launch of Lovenox: from "low-probability" of generic approval in 2009 to "possible" in 2010 (where he explicitly qualifies Sanofi's financial guidance for that year with a "possible" generic lovenox launch by competitors)

All this is very bullish for MNTA in my eyes.....

[DewDiligence]

SNY doesn’t know more than anyone else does about when a generic Lovenox is coming.