Replies to post #1121 on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (fka CCME)

[chensiona]

And with almost 10% short interest, it will be very interesting to see what happens these next few days.

[RyanW439]

The Chinese stocks have been out of favor, but anyone can stand out of the crowd, and with 150% YOY growth, CCME is poised to do just that. It's had a few launches that failed last minute, so I'm still trying to hold down my excitement, but with growth like this it's getting real hard to do. It's one thing to have a small cap grow earnings from 2 million to 5 million YOY, but growth at these levels has to be recognized by the big boys.. If they haven't loaded up in this down tick, they have to start soon. They can't ignore growth like this forever...

[viking86]

I posted earlier today on the CGS board about the potential increase of earnings by new busses being added to their network that has not been included in their previous 2010 guidance as released in the 2009 E/R on Mar 31, 10. Here is my back-of-napkin math related to the additional net income estimate:

The 2010 net income guidance of 73M (mid range of 71 and 75M) is based on 21,000 busses they had by End of March 2010:

from 10k: The total number of buses equipped with our television systems is now over 21,000, increasing approximately by more than 1,000 buses since the end of November

So, per bus avg. net income is = 73M/21000= $3,476

They project 30,000 busses by End of 2010. That's 9000 busses added b/w March and EOY, potentially resulting in :

9000 x 3476/2 = 15.6M additional avg. net income

This is based on a simple linear model: if all 9000 busses were added on March 31, that would add 100%; conversely if all were added on the last day of the year the additional earning would be zero, if they are added progressively and at an equal pace during the year, the result would be 50% as shown above. Of course, the pace would be varied in reality and could be skewed toward the first half or last half or last quarter... but for the purpose of our estimate, a linear assumption is good enough for now.

So if they meet the goal of having 30K busses by EOY, the net income we can expect for 2010 (just coming from busses and neglecting other possible sources of additional revenue) would amount to:

73M + 15.6M = 88.6M

Assuming an avg. weighted OS of 41M for the year, we get an eps of

88.6/41= 2.16E

Based on this simple calculation and on the 1Q blowout released today, I think that an eps of 2+ is well within reach for the year.