Replies to post #95153 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

IDIX: Reading between the lines of the all-oral brigade…

Why is IDIX is moving ahead with such expedition on starting IDX184 + IDX320 combination trials (other than the obvious reason that IDIX thinks IDX320 is a great compound)? My supposition is that IDIX has already obtained an informal assurance that NVS will not opt-in for IDX320, which will allow to IDIX to shop IDX184 and IDX320 to other prospective suitors as a package deal.

The IDX184 + IDX320 combination is clearly the most consequential value proposition in IDIX’s HCV portfolio, so it makes economic sense that NVS—as a major shareholder of IDIX—would not want to impede this value creation by tying up one of the two compounds but not the other.

Anyone who listened to today’s CC could not help but notice the reluctance of IDIX’s executives to speak to NVS’ opt-in for IDX320, even when asked about it point blank by one of the analysts during the Q&A. This reluctance, I surmise, stems from the fact that NVS’ assurance not to opt-in for IDX320 has not yet been agreed to by NVS’ executive committee, which is the body that has to formally sign off on such a decision.