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Replies to #95012 on Biotech Values
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skitahoe

05/01/10 8:42 PM

#95060 RE: jessellivermore #95012

No I believe that DNDN does have a platform to build on, Neuvenge may be several years from potential approval, others I really don't know about. I also believe they'll partner Provenge for licensing, distribution and sales outside the U.S., that should be worth a pretty substantial gain. I'm not involved because while I believe the gains will be substantial in dollars, on a percentage basis, I don't believe a 3 banger is possible for perhaps a decade. Wish I'd gotten involved when it was under $5, but didn't back then, now working with others I believe can be 10 to 100 bangers in next 5 years.

I know the Dew put down both DNDN and GNVC, another stock I'm interested in, I'm uncertain of his position on IMGN, which I also believe has 10 banger potential once a second drug becomes Pivotal in addition to T-DM1 which should be approved this year or next which should be worth a double or more. I believe that if will be shown that the protocol was flawed in the PACT Trial by GNVC and the stock will shortly be back over $1. Where it goes from there will depend on the companies actions, but they do have many other clinical drugs working for them.

Most of the risk is now out of DNDN, but much of the reward has now been reaped. I don't know when that partnership may hit, but depending on the terms, $70 to $100 is certainly possible. On the other hand, if no partnership emerges, I don't know that the price hasn't gotten a little ahead of itself, and it might retrench a bit until sales of the drug start to build.

As always, JMHO.

Gary
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sdtrond

05/02/10 2:49 AM

#95070 RE: jessellivermore #95012

>>I have been aware of this company for several years...
>>Provenge clinical effect is fairly marginal...

In the several years you've "been aware" of the company, have you actually looked at the data?

Clinical results across multiple trials including THREE Phase III all happen to show pretty much the same effect. The FDA granted an SPA to the IMPACT trial and it met it's criteria. And now they approved it.

So.... where exactly do you see only a "marginal" effect?

Regards,
Trond
[excuse the snotty tone, please; I really am curious]