Food$: With the 5:1 reverse split I'll have to reevaluate SRS. I looked at the chart and saw the huge drop over the last year and figured it could rebound up to the $15 - $20 range easily from the pre split levels. I still think I'll buy some, along with some other short plays. I'm tempted to short the Naz because it has gained the most of the 3 major trading indexes. In a secular bear market the things that rose the highest in one cycle tend to lose the most when the market reverses. Much of this volatility is due to the emotional component of investing. When the crisis hit in late 2008 it induced investors to eventually overreact and sell in early 2009. Mutual fund and hedge fund managers were forced to liquidate positions involuntarily and this cause the markets to drop further. Some prices were absurdly low and many took advantage. Thus the big rally since March of 2009. Now I think we've overextended to the upside. A correction is overdue. Eventually the correction will once again overshoot true value and the market will become oversold. This is what happens in secular bear markets. Fundamentals go out the window and the market trades mostly on fear and emotion. Which is why these eras, like the 1929-1949 and 1966-1982 secular bear markets, show greater than average volatility. The 1929-1949 period is somewhate similar to the present era. Then we saw some of the steepest corrections and some of the strongest rallies ever seen in the markets. I'm still betting we see somewhat similar patterns during this secular bear. The underlying fundamentals are not improving for the most part. Unemployment claims are once again trending upward. Foreclosures rose precipitously. If nothing else it will be interesting. What is the old Chinese proverb: "May you live in interesting times."?
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