Yeah, kinda interesting indeed. To be honest I'm not sure what to expect out of earnings here. It's a kinda wild card for me. If they are good I will buy more after the earnings. For now I keep the position I already have. If they will show earnings above 2 bucks FD for the year the stock will rally as coal is pretty much in fashion right now.
Coal Prices - LLEN & SGZH - playing around with bloomberg report [1]
Year Avg 400 yuan to 500 yuan Which is $58 - $73 Thermal 4Q 700 yuan to 800 yuan which is $102 to $117
Looking at LLEN's their quarter that ended January, not exactly right time frame, had an average of $111 so seems representative of the report.
With SGZH which I'm still looking at. The quarters average prices were $56.14, $49.59 & $44.17. They seem to lag the price of coal increase and would seem to be on the lower end. However, assuming that they get the coal out, given the last quarter that remains a query, the macro situation is favourable. My intial feeling is that this year could be very good indeed.
This is work in progress but anyone have input? Should I be working with $80 a tonne, or higher, for Q4 09 / 2010 for SGZH? He he?
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