Replies to post #93684 on Cascadia Investments (CDIV)

[TA Heels]

TJ, using your example you are saying 150k would be short

Not really true, heres why:

650 short out of 1000

that means 650 short and 350 not sure

even if all 350 were covers that would leave 300 short at a MINIMUM

the reason I say minimum is that we don't know if the entire 350 were covers, but we do know the minimum short

I will send a post I put out a couple weeks back that I think will help

[TA Heels]

Check my post out from early last month:

Lets just make sure the entire team is clear on this!!

Here is the short data from today

20100308|CDIV|525135|881449|O

There were 525,135 shares shorted today

If they were all covered that would mean 525,135 shars short and 535,135 buys to cover.

If that were the case volume today would be 1,050,270 if there were no other action at all 0!

Since the volume today was 881,449 you know that there were at least 168,821 shorted shares that were not covered.

How do I know that:

535,135 shorted volume

Assume the remaining volume today was to cover the shorts

that would be total volume of 881,449 minus shorts of 535,135

That leaves you with 356,314 shares covered.

So if 535,135 were shorted and 356,314 covered the uncovered shorts are 168,821

Obviously, the 356,314 was not all covered shorts because we bought a chitload of shares today

Saying that there were 168,821 is NOT accurate, there were many more shorts not covered.

In addition, the 535,135 are registered shorts, it doesn't include naked shorts either.

My guess is that there were at least 400k shorts not covered today.

There are at least 25 - 30 million shares short amongst the MM's

AT LEAST

[JGP83]

good points timmyjames. Imo, i believe the simplest way to calculate daily open short % is by assuming the % we accumulate. If 60% was shorted on a 1M volume day. That's a potential open short position of 600K. If we as a team accounted for 50% of the volume that day, we know 500 of that 600K is open shorts. Obviously we need to apply a safety factor to that of other actual retail sellers out there who may have made up a small % of the volume for the day.

[Craig Baker]

VERY VERY CORRECT........ Awesome post sir! WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE HOLDING! ;-)