Replies to post #20732 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[wstera2]

16:40 ET Novellus (NVLS) 24.29 +0.11: -- Update -- On its conference call, company lowers Q3 bookings guidance to $220 mln vs July 22 guidance of $250 mln... shipments should be $245 mln vs earlier guidance of $260 mln due to push-outs from key customers.... stock at 23.70.

[mlsoft]

wstera2.....

The warnings season has begun early, and as I have been saying I expect it to be an active and quite negative period into earnings. I continue to feel that there is a high probability that we are about to head to new lows here.

The rally was unconvincing and on light volume with very little expansion in the new highs during the period. Most of the upside movement has been from short covering and bargain hunting, with prodding from the PPT every time it started to turn down, which gave an unnatural feel to the whole rally.

Although we may be able to get some buying into the weekend and perhaps the first few days of September, I think the odds are that the rally is over and we will head down soon. There is always the chance that there will be no further rally here, but pre-holiday and very light volume makes it impossible to guess. A small group of wino's probably could move the market tomorrow after the opening.

mlsoft