Replies to post #83088 on Apple Inc (AAPL)

[Heywood40]

Although you don't dispute the value of evaluating a new product, you don't seem to realize that the evaluation of a new new product before it has begun shipping, with no personal experience of it is not a very reliable evaluation.

My suggestion is simply that there is a really cheap way to determine if it is something that might drive the price of the stock up over the next two or three years.

If an investor was thinking of buying 100 shares at $225, it would only cost about 2% of the proposed investment to own and fully experience the product.

That's a pretty cheap cost for the benefit received.

The alternative for an investor is to wait and read what other people think.

Here are some evaluations of the iPhone, before it began shipping:

“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.”
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, 30 April 2007

“We Predict the iPhone will bomb. Which means that when the iPhone comes, Digg will likely be full of horror stories from the poor saps who camped out at their local AT&T store, only to find their purchase was buggier than a camp cabin.”
Seth Porges, The Futurist, 7 June 2007

“That’s the problem with hyping a product before it comes out. It’s bound to disappoint no matter how good it is, and if it isn’t quite as good as advertised, well, I suppose we’ll be surprised by some other cool thing. Maybe the cellphone equivalent of Nintendo’s Wii. Nobody saw that one coming.”
Brent Schlender, Fortune, 30 May 2007 (11 June 2007 Print Edition)

“What does the iPhone offer that other cell phones do not already offer, or will offer soon? The answer is not very much… Apple’s stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 seems ambitious.”
Laura Goldman, LSG Capital, 21 May 2007

“Apple begins selling its revolutionary iPhone this summer and it will mark the end of the string of hits for the company.”
Todd Sullivan, Seeking Alpha, 15 May 2007

“Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone… What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it’s smart it will call the iPhone a ‘reference design’ and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else’s marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures… Otherwise I’d advise people to cover their eyes. You are not going to like what you’ll see.”
John C. Dvorak, 28 March 2007

It's anyone's guess how the iPad will sell. There were a lot of very talented people who guessed wrong on the iPhone, so you won't have to feel all alone if you're wrong on the iPad.

Most of those people continued to get it wrong even after the iPhone began shipping, indicating that they wouldn't recognize great engineering even when they held it in their hands.

My suggestion presumes an investor will be able to recognize the investment value of a product when they see it and hold it in their hands. If they can't do that, (either the recognizing or the holding) then they're stuck with reading reviews like yours, which are based on pre-judgements.

Because you're so eager to discount the iPad, I don't think you're interested in a discussion at all. I've probably spent more time on this than I should have.

We agree on this:

Time will tell.

[Bootz]

I may be wrong, but the iPad seems to be Apple’s attempt to force a product into a market segment that doesn’t exist. Time will tell.

For someone who claims to have been employed at at least a semi-significant position within Microsoft, you exhibit a remarkable lack of forward looking imagination.

I hate to resort to a cliche because it is such a cliche, but it goes something like this: Skate to where the puck is going, not where it's been.

The netbook is/was a shot at where the puck was. The only "game" it brought to the table was its cheapness. Basically, it's a small window on the larger window of cyberspace/computing we've all grown accustomed to. Nothing is custom designed for it and nothing onscreen scales to its size and form.

People bought it by the millions simply because it was cheap. And I suspect that most buyers weren't new customers in need of the cheapest computer they could buy, but old hands who could simply afford one and thought it might come in useful while short traveling or under similar circumstances. I toyed with the idea of getting one myself, just because I could.

My kid did get one for Christmas -- an Acer -- precisely because it was such a cheap commodity that it made an affordable gift on someone else's part. It hasn't been turned on and used by him once.

So ask yourself what market segment netbooks addressed. Photoshop? I don't think so. Excel spreadsheets? I don't think so.

In other words, the netbook market segment was the same as a large percentage of current PC usage -- email, internet access, YouTube, etc. In other words, the usual suspects. Does the iPad have that segment covered? Yes, it does, and I would argue that it's coverage in that arena is going to look much better than what you see on the average netbook screen.

The other market segment to which the iPad will appeal is currently in its infancy -- and this is where Apple is gambling big time: Apps.

I suspect why Apple decided to make the iPad run the iPhone OS - as opposed to running OS X -- and didn't release it until now was to see what Apps would arise for the iPhone. It's now clear that the response has been overwhelming and that the prospects for even better Apps -- inventory control, medical records/diagnosis, books, interactive magazines/newspapers, ad infinitum [yes, even games!] -- will only be stimulated by the iPad screen size and form factor. That's the new market segment -- where the puck is headed, if you will.

In other words, while you think the market doesn't exist, I think the iPad has the opportunity of creating that market. Or rather exapanding it, as it were.

Again, time will tell.

But if you're who you say you are, you'll get one out of curiosity and see what develops.

Although, admittedly, I don't expect that much out of a dedicated troll who routinely refers to any user of Apple products as iDiots and the iPhone as "iPhoney."

Even Paul Thurrott (sinclap's anti-Apple author of choice) knows better:

Portable Devices

I love good technology, and some of the best technology I use can fit in a shirt pocket. These are the gadgets I use regularly.

Apple iPhone 3GS

Apple's smart phone entry, the iPhone 3GS, has evolved from a device that was deeply flawed into one that I cannot bear to part with, and it's hard to overstate how useful it is, and how much better it keeps getting over time. I recently upgraded to a black 32 GB 3GS model and I never leave the house without it. AT&T's lackluster wireless network continues to be the iPhone 3G's sole Achilles Heel, but coverage has improved over time as well.

My most frequently-used buit-in iPhone applications include Mail (email), Phone (phone and contacts) and Safari (Web browsing). I synchronize my Gmail Contacts and Google Calendar to the iPhone over-the-air using Google Mobile Sync.

My favorite and most-often-used third-party iPhone applications are mBox mail, Tweetie (Twitter), Facebook, New York Times (news), Amazon.com and Kindle, and IGN (for video game reviews). I use Cross Light and USA Today Crosswords for crossword puzzles; both are excellent.

http://www.winsupersite.com/paul/whatiuse.asp

iPhoney, indeed!