Replies to post #2459 on Rule-Based Trading Systems

[capt_jmj]

The second derivative of the MACD (10,66) has been negative for 6 days now (i.e. the rate of change of the slope of the MACD is slowing). A sustained move down will not be confirmed until the slope itself (the first derivative) becomes negative. It was a nice ride down at 2X Short today from the inflated open while it lasted, but netted out at a whopping 11.5 NDX pts. Big whoop...

[northam43]

Market Update:

SPX Daily, Weekly & Monthly remain bullish.

The SPX Daily is showing signs of a larger pullback. The PPO remains bearish and now the MACD is attempting a bearish crossing, also the RSI(14) has dropped below the 70 line. So we could start seeing a more sustained downward move.

If the SPX Daily opens below 1164 on Monday a new SPX Daily Phase I cycle could be under way. For a new Weekly cycle the SPX would have to drop below 1138 and for a new Monthly cycle the SPX would have to drop below 1100.

The average SPX Daily Phase I cycle probably averages about 5 trading days. This data is based upon the QLD Daily cycle data as they have pretty much mirrored each other from the data I have currently compiled.

The current SPX Daily Phase II cycle has lasted 28 trading days with a low of 1044.5 and high of 1180.14 a gain of 135.64 points. That is an incredible rally thus far. The question is, is it over with? Is this the beginning of a ST pullback? MT pullback? or major correction?

I would say a better that 50% chance for a ST pullback, 30% for a MT and 10% for a LT.

A ST pullback could go as low as 1150. Below that the MT pullback comes into play.