Replies to post #49113 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[facsnotfiction]

HailMary Hold off till aftr Q4 Earnings
I say this because in 5 of the last 6 years the stock has gone down after Q4 earnings. This is typically due in part to seasonality. I also have to figure that most of the shorts who shorted below $15 have already closed their positions. Now you have new short sellers moving in on the stock. Plus we need to see how much costs are coming down in the Flash area where their seems to be too much competition. I have to believe their were several days where the volume was 20 million or more, especially that one day where something like 40 milion shares traded that a lot of that was short covering. The bottom line for AMD to move higher now is they need to increase EPS. I think AMD could be a $30 stock next year in early December, but over the summer I think the stock could bottom around $16. AMD needs to be making at least .25 share each quarter for the stock to get into the 30's. Good luck.

[Petz]

re: hold off until after earnings

Based on the following, not a good idea --

AMD price change 12/9 to earnings, 
 day of earnings to 12/31, 
 12/9 to 01/31 
            12/9 to  EPS DAY  12/9 to 
 YEARS      EPS DAY  to 01/31 01/31 
 ---------- -------  -------  ------- 
 1998-1999  -10%     -18%     -26% 
 1999-2000  +33%     -8%      +23% 
 2000-2001  +15%     +33%     +53% 
 2001-2002  +0%      -10%     -10% 
 2002-2003  -2%      -27%     -28% 
 2003-2004  +16%     -14%     -1% 
 AVERAGE    +9%      -10%     +2%

The period from now UNTIL earnings day has a good positive bias over the past 6 years. The worst year was down 10%. But earnings have to be just stupendous to overcome the normal AMD post earnings downdraft.

Petz