Well one obvious timing awkwardness in terms of restructuring their rida deal is the upcoming interim look at the data this quarter. That data will potentially alter the timing of any milestones and the cash needs going forward.
Presumably a restructuring would involve rewriting the agreement the way it should have been written in the first place - a smaller share of potential profits for Ariad in exchange for a smaller (or capped) share of the development expenses. The question arises whether Merck is somehow playing hardball in terms of delaying the restructuring - that's why Harvey would be better off keeping his mouth shut in terms of timing of future events. But they have about a year's cash, so it's not like they couldn't wait several months if need be.
There should be no shortage of potential partners for 534, although obviously two of the potential players already have their own drugs, which complicates things. If they partner 534 now, that takes some of the urgency out of restructuring the Merck deal.
I have no idea why the stock has been strong of late - it's not as if there has been any actual news of significance. It's either the rest of the world finally waking up to the fact the stock was dramatically underpriced compared with its peers, or there's been a leak of some partnership news.
Peter
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