OT: dumping the dollar
That siren call has been going up for as long as I can remember. All the insta-gurus were bleating about it in the 80s too.
Before you buy off too heavily on that theory, you might check in with someone who works in the investments business in Europe to gain some perspective on how they perceive and view U.S. markets vs. their own, and particularly how they view the U.S. structural debt and public spending issues relative to their own. I'm not sure I'll ever really understand it myself, but Europeans look at our economy with dreamy eyes, relative to their own. Most of the people with real investable assets in Europe are more pro-U.S. economy in terms of relative confidence than most of the hawkish sales hucksters here in the U.S. Weird, but true and worth taking into account. (BTW, George Soros has a big mouth, but he's the exception not the rule, and he's a unique case as a currency trader who profits by talking the market in the direction of his trades).
Remember, they're not looking at the U.S. job market, deficit, and social program spending and overhang in the asbtract, they're looking at it relative to their own. Ours may be bad, but go take a good look at France's and Germany's and you'll see why there isn't going to be any wholesale dumping of the dollar to rush into Euros betting their economies are more sound and their fiscal policies more responsible than our own.
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