Looked at the CLYW chart again tonight before hopping on another plane. I do think there is a clear shift apparent now in the patterns in the CCI and the RSI/Performance vs share price and accumulation/distribution in the short term charts... on the two month charts... looking at how CCI now compares to the CCI in the prior spike in that indicator...
Might be building up some bit of additional strength now, building on the basis of the continued strength in the pattern in insider buying, which continues... I don't think that there is very much larger market awareness developing yet, or much of any market awareness, or impact developing from a general acceptance or interpretation of the meaning and impact of the most recent court filings. I think they are FAR more meaningful than market reaction thus far suggests... indicating what seems to me a HUGE sea change in the nature of the contest, and in the direction of the "flow" that has been going on inside CLYW for something over three years...
I think there is still going to be a lot of pretty well justified skepticism prevalent among the regulars... "Things are different this time"... met by "Un-huh. Yeah, right. We'll see."
I think the facts in the situation that clearly is developing now at CLYW are vastly BETTER than those that existed in early 2007, or in early 2008...
The "resolution" of problems that the market anticipated in the run up in 2007 didn't ever happen... and that touted as being delivered by the settlement in early 2008 eliminated only half of the problems plaguing the company...
I'm not declaring "victory is at hand" for CLYW yet... rather than advising the trend in the patterns are worth watching very closely. But, IF they do succeed, as recent events clearly seem to indicate they are... the impact of the actual success delivered should and could dramatically dwarf the impact of the event in early 2007... for three very good reasons...
First, in both of those prior events, the value of the success it was claimed might be delivered had already been significantly diminished... as the CLYW % share in the benefit was greatly constrained by the nature of the insider deals being done... and the FACT of continued suppression of the company by those bad actors ongoing interferences, etc. Those prior runs were each still dominated by that ongoing fact of mistrust, paired with "dilution" in the portion of value attached to the shares, paired with the ongoing fact of interferences of bad actors. The run in 2007 was amplified with a promise of deliverance from the bad actors interferences by an inside white knight. The current price is a result of the long continuation in that prior group of patterns, and the ongoing failure of white knight to provide that deliverance... which the latest court filings say is finally going to be provided. "Wait for it" is still the right answer... given the "fool me once" and "fool me twice" practiced here... and the skepticism of the regulars. But... it looks like it is real this time... and growing awareness of that fact will likely lag the delivery of the proofs by a full step or two.
Second, the last time around, CLYW was looking at a fractional interest... with the lawyers getting half, and bad actors getting a big share of what was left... with the trend not looking like a friend. More recently, the bad actors moved to take ALL OF IT... which is what investors were waiting for before acting. Now, with a quick submission in Federal court action, the tables have turned... the dynamic is reversed 180 degrees. If CLYW wins the action they have undertaken... it could restore their interest to something close to 100%... with the lawyers not getting a cut unless they buy shares too, and the bad actors being shown the door, with a need to surrender the interest they have... and perhaps quite a bit more. NOT a done deal yet... but what has been put in play now is NOT what was seen as in play two weeks ago.
Third, in each of those prior years... the value of the patent was still purely or largely "prospective" as it had not yet been proven in the market, while the need for doing the legal work was still thus a future focused element, too. Now, the technology is being adopted, rapidly, not yet ubiquitously... but it seems inevitable that it is headed there. There ARE infringers now... and they are racking up liabilities left and right, with new ones coming out of the woodwork weekly... and T-Mobile is being sued... and the obstructions to progress in the suit have just been eliminated as a result of the filings this week. Still a long row to hoe to get the trial started and resolved... but, clarity and resolution occurring more rapidly than any have expected this week... progress is occurring at a dizzying pace right now.
Liberating CLYW from the obstructions that have hobbled it in the last three years... is yet another unknown... What might result from it... and when ? A complete unknown, but the market expectations are still mired in the long, drawn out, totally non-dynamic situation that existed two weeks ago... and that seems to me it no longer defines the present or the future... making additional surprises not unlikely.
I'm not predicting that CLYW is going to run on Monday, next week, or "soon"... and I honestly don't know what it WILL take for that to happen, or when it will finally become unavoidable, etc... but, I do think the market has not yet even begun to digest the nature of the huge impact of the sea change that took place this week...
Those close enough to it who have seen the change evolving in increments over the last year or so are like "frogs in water"... perhaps not seeing that this new increment in change is a bit more... meaningful... than any of the prior increments. Those not close enough to it to have that sort of a feel for it... or who haven't been following the blow by blow inside baseball elements of the ongoing internal squabbles and the legal struggles, etc., are similarly stuck in expecting inertia will continue to work... only still thinking things are still swinging away from them now, not noting the change of direction has things moving towards them now, with the trend in place long enough that things are beginning to pick up a bit of speed.
I do think the situation now is dramatically, massively, hugely better than it was at this time back in 2008... while the same is true relative to 2007 both in terms of what it was thought was being delivered then, that seems it IS being delivered now, while at the same time the "potential" of the technology now is a market FACT rather than the hope for the future that it was then.
Looks like CLYW is at or near a tipping point to me... which doesn't tell me when it will break out of the chaos, or what it will do when it does...
Maybe the pattern in the time of year matters ?
If it was worth a speculative $0.50 back in 2007... I expect it is worth a speculative $5 now... given changes in the market value of it, given the rate of adoption of the tech now, and the other improvements in situation... although I have no way of knowing when the market will begin to do any of what it will have to do at some point... when those values are closer to being realized as $$$ in the business.
Maybe it won't run up at all until after the state court action wraps up, and a few deals are signed, or T-Mobile settles ? That could take months... a year. And then, maybe it will have to move straight from $0.03 to $5 or more ??? Instead... I expect it will begin to creep higher a bit more over time as the market begins to digest the news of this week... as today... with lower volume, the money flow dropping, with the share price moving up by 25% while the ADX is showing it at a bottom, not at an interim peak ?
I've been accumulating this one... a very high risk, super high reward potential stock... that seems to have wrung a very large part of the risks out of it this week. I'm swinging for the fences with this one, too... holding out for that future big bang with a move to the $5+ price point... before they really start in on doing the Qualcomm thing.
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