The one-minute and five-minute charts show the Accumulation/Distribution line (the black one between the red and blue ones) is showing the stock is under Accumulation. The OBV (red line) is what I call "smart money", and on the one-minute chart it's moving with the A/D line...But on the five-minute chart, they are diverging...You'll notice on the fifteen minute and hourly charts below how much worse this divergence gets looking at a longer time frame...Two days in a row, the one-minute chart formed a Descending Triangle (bearish), and dumped a penny near the end of both sessions...Today's close at .31 was nothing more than a bad paint job IMO...It was trading at .295 - .299 a few minutes before the close and looked like it was going to close red today...
On the fifteen-minute and hourly charts, the divergence of the A/D line and the OBV is more apparent, especially compared to the two charts above...(A/D is yellow, and the OBV is just above it)...Notice that little uptick in the A/D line at the end of today's session?...If they hadn't painted the tape at the close today, there wouldn't have been an uptick on the hourly chart A/D line, and it would have closed at the low of the day...That would be bearish on a day the company gave another presentation, but would make sense that the day traders bailed out when no earth shaking news came out of today's conference...(Look below these charts for what I think is going on...)
Whenever you see divergences like this between the A/D line and the OBV, that can be caused by a few things...
One thing that will mess up a chart's Technical Indicators really badly is those AMEX trades that are truncated to the nearest penny...And a lot of that is caused by MM games as they trade between themselves for fractions of a penny of profit each time they do that...Some folks don't believe that the MM's are signalling each other with these 100, 200, 300, 400, and 500 share trades...
I do, because I've been watching these signals for years, and the MM's are also signalling each other when they flash the bid/ask at .0029 X .0030 when they want to keep the share price between .29 X .30 If you notice how many times a day this happens, and what happens next, you'll see what I mean...If it's trading at .29 X .30 and the MM's flash .0030 X .0031 the price will move up a penny soon thereafter...
But the main reason we are stuck in such a tight trading range, and being held back the last couple of weeks are:
Shorters buying to cover Short positions at the BID, and then buying to go Long at the BID...Large Institutional orders placed to fill in a narrow price range are common, and can also cause this trading mostly at the BID...
MM's covering large Short positions, or Institutions placing large Buy orders will keep the share price locked in a very tight range until the order is completely filled...This could take weeks if the order is big enough...
I have a feeling the Shorts ARE Covering, because the share price has stopped falling and good news will be coming soon (we hope) with the FDA's announcement of the ANX-530 NDA...
That means Shorters should be Covering, and then going Long for the anticipated run up towards the end of this month...They like to make money going both directions...
That also means Institutions should be Buying going Long for the same reason...Small retail investors like you and me that frequent message boards have virtually no impact on the share price of such a heavily traded stock IMO...
When the Shorters have finally finished Covering, and have gotten their fill of Long positions...And when the big Institutions have gobbled up all of the Long shares that they want...Only then will they allow this stock to move up again...It's in their best interest to let it finally GO!...They know how to make money, and it's up to us little guys to try to figure out what THEY are doing so that we can so the same things at the same time...
Bottom line: This stock should see some upward movement in the next two to three weeks, until the FDA announces if they will accept or deny the NDA for ANX-530...
Then, will it be a case of "sell the news" again, or Rally Time?...My guess is it should rally HARD if the FDA approves the NDA for ANX-530...That's really all this "story stock" needs...That will make this company's story that much compelling and valuable to everyone invested in it...
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