Replies to post #90340 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

The Dimebon results in HD are at best neutral, IMO, with respect to foretelling a successful phase-3 outcome in AD. What do you think?

[biomaven0]

Note these Dimebon HD results are just the publication of the top-line results first presented last year.

The only nugget in the paper that I don't think was mentioned last year was that the improvement on the MMSE was even better for the patients with more severe cognitive improvement (p=.008 in this post hoc subgroup analysis vs. p=.03 for the whole group). Note also fewer dropouts among the placebo group.

This top-line result when it first came out did give me some small amount of additional confidence that the drug wasn't just a Russian version of a placebo. But given the stock's substantial advance since then I've taken more than half off the table. The prostate drug should act as something of a backstop if the AD trial fails, but really I have no good feel for how the AD trial will come out - call it 50:50.

Here's a bearish analysis which amounts to "something doesn't smell right here:"

http://www.foursquarepartners.com/pdf/MDVN_2009_02.pdf

Peter