CFX.UN.TO Up nicely this morning but still no where near reflecting current or future fundamentals. As of March it will be paying 12 cents per month or $1.44 a year (at least for 2010), which at $8.70 gives it a current yield of 16.5 %. I believe it should be yielding somewhere between 15 % as a minimum and 10 % as a maximum, that suggests a minimum selling price of $9.60 and a fully valued selling price of $14.40. I use those two numbers as guides to buying and selling in the short term. Anything under $9.60 and I am a buyer, anything between $9.60 and $14.40 I hold and if it gets above $14.40 I will lighten up. I was buying again this morning; my position is now twice as large as my second largest position (I have about 50 positions in total).
In their press release mangement believes that pulp prices will head higher; paper prices which actually have held back their results are just beginning to show life. Recent lower energy prices, recent pulp price increases (Jan and Feb), recent weakness in the Canadian dollar and yet to be realized green program initiatives (similiar to the just ended black liquor credits in US), will help to propel earnings and distributions even higher. Their press conference starts at 11 AM Eastern Time (i.e. in half an hour). Listen to the webcast at the Canfor Pulp site:
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