Replies to post #94959 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Neutral Man]

Do NOT, we RE-Peat, DO NOT fall in Love with the BOUNCE!!
The 4cast has NOT Changed, per se, and the GAP up will like-lee generate a new 4cast withing 30 minutes of the OPEN, BUT, we would have expected a GAP down, then Lower lows, then a COMPLETE recover by days end to create a nice tail'd reversal candle if da-Boyz were really going take prices higher!?

Instead, this GAP up has us VERY defensive and we'll use it to ADD short plays in anticipation of the 43.47 negate number NOT being tagged for starters and NOT being breached on a CLOSE-ing basis for SURE!

That said, OBVIOUS-lee we're in Great shape with $94.88/40 contracts in gains already, AND, since we have an UN-THINK-a-Bull amount of Long plays still OPEN in our port at this mornings OPEN, we get to be Extremely Aggressive in our SHORT plays on ANY Freakin Attempt to GAP up!! So much so that we'll OPEN SHORT plays on the OPEN-ing bell by SELLING to OPEN, Feb42 calls!!??

Order StO, 240 Feb42 calls at 1.40 +/-??

Boyz, you KNOW what to do so JUST DO IT, LLOLOL!!


Open Positions:

BtO, 480 Feb43 calls at 0.84
BtO, 240 Feb44 calls at 1.01
BtO, 120 Feb44 calls at 1.23
BtO, 120 Feb44 calls at 1.30
BtO, 120 Feb45 calls at 1.35
BtO, 120 Feb45 calls at 1.30
BtO, 120 Feb46 calls at 1.25
BtO, 120 Feb46 calls at 0.96
BtO, 120 Feb47 calls at 0.68
BtO, 360 Feb47 calls at 0.44

StO, 240 Feb44 puts at 1.00
StO, 240 Feb44 puts at 1.30
StO, 240 Feb45 puts at 1.70
StO, 240 Feb47 puts at 2.78
StO, 120 Feb48 puts at 2.04
StO, 120 Feb49 puts at 2.52

BtO, 480 Feb42 puts at 0.54
BtO, 480 Feb42 puts at 0.41
BtO, 240 Mar44 puts at 2.00

Total gains for the FebOE = 94.88 against 40 contracts

04Feb10, posts as 10.38 against 40 contracts
StO, 240 Feb42 calls at 1.50, BtC at 1.30, .20 gain
BtO, 240 Mar44 puts at 1.87, StC at 2.12, .25 gain
StO, 240 Feb42 calls at 1.52, BtC at 1.24, .28 gain
StO, 240 Feb42 calls at 1.57, BtC at 1.27, .30 gain
BtO, 480 Feb43 puts at 0.76, StC at 0.86, .10 gain
StO, 240 Feb43 calls at 1.15, BtC at 0.90, .25 gain
StO, 240 Feb43 calls at 1.25, BtC at 1.00, .25 gain

03Feb10, posts as 5.88 against 40 contracts
StO, 240 Feb46 puts at 2.47, BtC at 2.14, .33 gain
StO, 240 Feb45 puts at 1.60, BtC at 1.35, .25 gain
StO, 240 Feb44 puts at 1.06, BtC at 0.86, .20 gain
StO, 240 Feb45 puts at 1.75, BtC at 1.55, .20 gain

02Feb10, posts as 6.84 against 40 contracts
BtO, 480 Feb43 calls at 1.00, StC at 1.20, .20 gain
StO, 240 Feb44 puts at 1.26, BtC at 1.11, .15 gain
BtO, 240 Feb41 calls at 2.35, StC at 2.55, .20 gain
StO, 240 Feb44 put at 1.30, BtC at 1.16, .14 gain
BtO, 240 Feb45 puts at 1.88, StC at 2.03, .15 gain
StO, 240 Feb44 puts at 1.24, BtC at 1.14, .10 gain

01Feb10, posts as 8.40 against 40 contracts
StO, 240 Feb45 puts at 2.06, BtC at 1.96, .10 gain
BtO, 480 Feb43 calls at 0.87, StC at 0.97, .10 gain
StO, 240 Feb45 puts at 2.15, BtC at 2.00, .15 gain
BtO, 240 Mar44 puts at 1.85, StC at 2.00, .15 gain
StO, 240 Feb43 calls at 0.96, BtC at 0.86, .10 gain
BtO, 240 Feb45 puts at 1.50, StC at 2.20, .70 gain

29Jan10, posts as 19.44 against 40 contracts
BtO, 240 Feb44 puts at 0.87, StC at 1.66, .79 gain
BtO, 480 Feb44 puts at 0.87, StC 240 at 1.52, .65 gain
StO, 240 Feb43 calls at 1.50, BtC at .80, .70 gain
BtO, 480 Feb43 puts at 0.57, StC at 1.12, .55 gain


28Jan10, posts as 11.61 against 40 contracts
BtO, 480 Feb43 puts at 0.65, StC at 0.73, .08 gain
BtO, 480 Mar46 puts at 2.50, StC at 2.85, .35 gain
StO, 480 Feb42 calls at 2.48, BtC at 2.23, .25 gain
BtO, 240 Feb46 puts at 1.97, StC at 2.17, .20 gain
StO, 120 Feb43 calls at 1.89, BtC at 1.64, .25 gain
BtO, 240 Feb45 puts at 1.05, StC at 1.35, .30 gain
StO, 120 Feb43 calls at 2.20, BtC at 1.80, .40 gain

27Jan10, posts as 6.18 against 40 contracts
StO, 120 Feb47 puts at 2.72, BtC at 2.46, .26 gain
StO, 120 Feb47 puts at 2.64, BtC at 2.46, .18 gain
StO, 120 Feb45 puts at 1.25, BtC at 1.10, .15 gain
StO, 120 Feb45 puts at 1.49, BtC at 1.24, .25 gain
BtO, 240 Mar46 puts at 2.36, StC at 2.60, .25 gain
BtO, 120 Feb46 puts at 2.00, StC at 2.15, .15 gain
BtO, 120 Feb46 puts at 1.88, StC at 2.03, .15 gain
StO, 120 Feb44 calls at 1.32, BtC at 1.16, .16 gain
StO, 120 Feb44 calls at 1.41, BtC at 1.16, .25 gain

26Jan10, posts as 4.26 against 40 contracts
BtO, 120 Feb46 puts at 1.83, StC at 1.98, .12 gain
StO, 240 Feb44 calls at 1.50, BtC 120 at 1.30, .20 gain
StO, 240 Feb44 calls at 1.50, BtC 120 at 1.35, .15 gain
BtO, 120 Feb47 puts at 2.34, StC at 2.49, .15 gain
StO, 240 Feb44 calls at 1.41, BtC at 1.11, .40 gain
StO, 120 Feb43 calls at 2.08, BtC at 1.93, .20 gain
BtO, 120 Feb46 puts at 1.95, StC at 2.15, .20 gain

25Jan10, posts as 5.37 against 40 contracts
BtO, 120 Feb46 puts at 1.90, StC at 2.05, .15 gain
StO, 120 Feb43 calls at 2.05, BtC at 1.90, .15 gain
BtO, 120 Feb46 puts at 1.90, StC at 2.15, .25 gain
BtO, 480 Feb44 puts at 0.40, StC 120 at 1.04, .64 gain
BtO, 480 Feb44 puts at 0.40, StC 120 at 1.00, .60 gain

22Jan10, posts as 6.45 against 40 contracts
BtO, 480 Feb44 puts at 0.40, StC 120 at 1.00, .60 gain
BtO, 480 Feb44 puts at 0.40, StC 120 at 0.95, .55 gain
StO, 240 Feb44 calls at 1.95, BtC at 1.65, .30 gain
BtO, 240 Feb46 puts at 1.30, StC at 1.40, .10 gain
StO, 120 Feb44 calls at 2.03, BtC at 1.83, .20 gain

21Jan10, posts as 5.20 against 40 contracts
StO, 120 Feb44 calls at 2.07, BtC at 1.88, .19 gain
BtO, 240 Feb45 puts at 0.81, StC at 0.89, .08 gain
StO, 80 Feb45 calls at 1.43, BtC at 1.33, .10 gain
BtO, 120 Feb46 puts at 0.85, StC at 1.15, .30 gain
BtO, 80 Feb47 puts at 1.35, StC at 1.65, .30 gain
BtO, 40 Feb47 puts at 1.30, StC at 1.65, .35 gain
StO, 120 Feb45 calls at 1.69, BtC at 1.49, .20 gain
StO, 120 Feb44 calls at 2.50, BtC at 2.25, .25 gain
StO, 120 Feb48 puts at 2.21, BtC at 1.96, .25 gain

20Jan10, posts as 4.87 against 40 contracts
BtO, 80 Feb47 puts at 1.43, StC at 1.88, .45 gain
BtO, 40 Feb47 puts at 1.37, StC at 1.77, .40 gain
BtO, 40 Feb47 puts at 1.32, StC at 1.74, .42 gain
BtO, 40 Feb47 puts at 1.34, StC at 1.74, .40 gain
StO, 240 Feb45 calls at 1.70, BtC at 1.50, .20 gain
BtO, 40 Feb48 puts at 2.05, StC at 2.30, .25 gain
BtO, 80 Feb48 puts at 1.97, StC at 2.17, .20 gain
BtO, 80 Feb47 puts at 1.10, StC at 1.40, .30 gain

[Neutral Man]

Sell-Signal CONFIRMED and we should expect the YTD Pivots listed below to be tagged before this Corrective-Compulsive-Exhaustive-Discount-Wave concludes!?

YTD Pivots:
S1(43.35), -2.5% (tagged 1/27)
S2(42.24), -5.0% (as 4cast tagged 2/5)
S3(41.13), -7.5% (4cast to be tagged 10Feb)
S4(40.01), -10% (4cast to be tagged 11Feb)

The current Sell-Signal has generated a "negate" number of 43.47 and until this number is breached on a CLOSE-ing basis the Sell-Signal remains in effect!!

That said, we ALSO got a Buy-Signal Friday, BUT, it too will have to be confirmed before we get too excited. The current negate number for the Buy-Signal is 42.44??

In the Meantime we have BOTH Sell and Buy Signals in effect and that puts us right back in da-Middle again, LOLOL!! We're in Net Neutral mode until one of dem "Negate" numbers get taken out, hence, we bee playing BOTH sides in anticipation of just about ANYTHING, especially when da-Boyz are involved, LOL!!

Da-Boyz are in Full_Court_Jester_Mode and we actually LIKE IT, oh boy, sigh....................

We're expecting higher prices Monday and will be watching the 43.47 mark-r for clues as to da-Boyz True Intentions??

For those keeping tabs, the Q's closed the week UP, Up 0.4% to be exact, Go Figure, or NOT!?

Date Open High Low Close
5-Feb 42.75 43.01 42.12 42.98 (wkly Pivot, 42.98)
4cast
8-Feb 43.34 43.53 43.16 43.27

Enjoy the GAME ALL and to ALL, GOOD DAY!!