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Replies to #90087 on Biotech Values

rkrw

02/03/10 4:45 PM

#90088 RE: AlpineBV_Miller #90087

You nearly brought a tear to my eye. :)

<<<Provenge was designed with manufacturing in mind. It was designed by people who watched a company they loved be swiped for a song because of an inability to solve manufacturing issues. They have spent the entire 10+ years we have covered the company creating a system to make sure that doesn't happen again. That's worth knowing, I think. >>>>

I do agree with you and didn't find the article provocative or insightful.

DewDiligence

02/03/10 6:18 PM

#90094 RE: AlpineBV_Miller #90087

Dendreon has not released sales data. They released manufacturing capacity data. There is a BIG difference.

I disagree. The “capacity” data DNDN has released includes both a dollar amount and a number of patients; thus, DNDN is implicitly disseminating pricing data before the product has been approved, which is something conservative companies rarely do.

DewDiligence

02/03/10 6:23 PM

#90095 RE: AlpineBV_Miller #90087

Assuming you don't believe Dendreon is lying to their shareholders like SPPI did on satraplatin's SPA, there is no basis for a charge the trial is "poorly constructed."

The Seeking Alpha blogger said the IMPACT trial was not poorly constructed. Did you miss the word not?

turtlepower

02/03/10 6:34 PM

#90097 RE: AlpineBV_Miller #90087

Provenge was designed with manufacturing in mind. It was designed by people who watched a company they loved be swiped for a song because of an inability to solve manufacturing issues. They have spent the entire 10+ years we have covered the company creating a system to make sure that doesn't happen again. That's worth knowing, I think.



Didn't the CRL issued 3 years ago address CMC deficiencies? Sure 3 years is a lot of time to get things under control but given that its a novel manufacturing process and has to handle thousands of batches (not hundreds for the clinical trials) there is bound to be a lot of scrutiny. Therefore looking at DNDN as an investment at this stage where its at a MC of 4B thats just too much risk IMO. Not tying to be a drama queen bear but just trying to point out potential risks in investing in DNDN at this stage.It will eventually get approved but when is the question.