Replies to post #1219 on Entremed (ENMD)

[C_Peptide]

cycle dude, I doubt that piece of history is likely to be repeated with any kind of consistency. The ES, AS animal paper to which you refer was the 27-Nov-97 issue of Nature. The "moon shot" was precipitated by a page one article in the Sunday NYT, on 03-May-98, by Gina Kolata. That article added no significant information to what had already been published, except to include the infamous and disputed Watson quotation, "Judah is going to cure cancer in two years."

Much has been written about "Gina Kolata Day," from the perspectives of investing, journalism, ethics, science policy, and medicine, with many viewpoints, including a number of widespread distortions and falsehoods about the roles of Ms. Kolata, EntreMed, and Dr. Fokman. In the biomedical investing and reporting communities it remains one of those flashbulb memories, like an assassination. I don't think we will see a similar event, certainly not regarding EntreMed, any time soon.

The time interval between the reporting of the science and the wild speculative spike in the stock price had little to do with the amount of time it take scientific findings to be recognized by "the street," an a lot to do with the imagination of the investing public being captured by an over-the-top comment by a Nobel prizewinner (possibly misquoted), given over-the-top placement in what is perhaps the most widely read Sunday publication in the world.

In any case, the Duke HIF-1alpha "master switch" findings were published in May 2004, so if you assume a four month delay, the "moon shot" would have been in September, a distinctly non-moon-shot region of the ENMD chart.

Best Regards,
C-Peptide

[georgejjl]

Cycle Dude

I agree with C_Peptide that the Gina Kolata article in the New York times was the cause of the 1997 "moon shot". ENMD stock closed that Friday at about $12 per share on the Monday following the article ENMD traded as high as $85 per share. I had a limit order in before the market opened at $17 per share. It never traded that low on that day.

What you have to remember is that that "moon shot" was the result of an article about experiments on mice.

Think about what could happen if and/or when an article about the Panzem NCD trials are published with outstandingly good results in human trials. The Panzem NCD trials are scheduled to start early in 2005 and I expect that they will be seeing outstandingly good results within three months from the start of the trial based on everything that I have read.

Good luck and God bless,

George