Yeah their backlog was down pretty low and in the conference call it was basically implied this quarter would be very weak.
My interest stems from the high POSSIBILITY that they could get some significant orders for the API they supply for Protease Inhibitors. I haven't dug deeply enough to see if they supply Vertex. In their (Synthetech) presentations they have talked about supplying 4 or so companies that have HCV products in development (they talked on a less technical level then the Biotech's I follow but I am certain they were referring to Protease Inhibitors and possibly Polymerase Inhibitors as well). If Vertex is one (or becomes one) this could be an extremely large order for them as Vertex's Protease is completing Phase 3 and they will need to ramp up production and get longer term supply agreements in place BEFORE approval (probably sometime in '11) and there will be a lot more drug needed for sale then used in the trials. Schering Plough (now part of Merck) also is in Phase 3 and while their compound has some issues even small sales here could be significant for NZYM if they supply them but I would much prefer to see NZYM be supplying Vertex.
If it tanks after next earnings I may try to dig around more to see if they are/how likely they are to supply either and to what extent (Bio/Pharma's usually have multiple suppliers). While I could guess potential sales its beyond my science capability to know what that would translate to in sales of the API Synthetech would could supply then there is the additional guess of how big a supplier Synthetech would be.
I picked them in the charity contest because I thought it was an interesting speculation that could be a huge windfall for them and could occur this year (certainly at least the order). And being as the competition is for charity it only costs me the amount I pledged to the winner.
So I guess bottom line is I doubt I'll buy but never say never :-)
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