TP,
It's been a long time....
As you already know, my issue lies not so much in the r/s; rather, it is the reduction of par that keeps playing on my mind.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but as far as I am aware par value typically would have nothing to do with an r/s. It would merely remain the same post split. However, in this circumstance Neom is reducing par, and while I am "hoping" that this is merely a contingency, we have no way of knowing whether they anticipate it being "needed." I do not enjoy going through life "hoping." With all which has transpired over time I simply cannot discount the intent of that clause.
As I view the landscape, I find it nearly impossible to construct the standards, contract with stalwarts, win a USPTO challenge, contract with "the" recognized player in mobile (Neustar), win a 100% favorable legal settlement from the most relentless and obstinate infringer in the industry; then go on to win another patent dispute in the EU (presuming they win); then be awarded the clearinghouse (presuming they win)...and have nobody interested in licensing?? Sorry, I simply do not see that end result. Call me Overly Confident, however, I remain, as always...confident.
As for when I would consider selling...doubt it will occur provided the activity in the space continues to accelerate. In my book the word "timing" comes into play based upon the inclusion of the reduction in par in the filing. It is likely that May is premature and that due to the timing they envision the need for more than one additional round of dilution (not a definite and I cannot for the life of me understand why more than one additional round would be necessary, but I have to consider Neom's outlandish history).
Considering this, I will be reevaluating my next buy-price along the way. No, I do not anticipate selling, and provided all aspects remain constant and the industry continues to accelerate, I will eventually back up the truck again (yes, the white jacket is becoming a bit stretched of late...getting a bit of breathing room).
You asked...I shared. Does not mean I am right, however, currently this is simply what I feel to be my reality. If I lose I will have been my own worst enemy.
Best,
BC