Replies to post #12532 on Nothing But Politics

[Ace Hanlon]

I don't expect the buck top drop as much as you, but there is little doubt it will go down quite a bit (albeit with some bounces along the way)

But the biggest risk here is not a declining dollar per se, but the probable loss of the dollar's status as the world only reserve currency. That would make it impossible for the Bushies to carry on with their warmongering without either hiking taxes sharply or accepting a return of the double digit inflation of the 1970s.

[stack]

@Laird Cregar

just a news item from today since we talked about:

Tokyo, Nov18. Today"s Nikkei reports that Russia will move from an USD-peg to a EUR-USD basket system where the Euro will take a 70% share and the U.S. dollar a 30% share. The new basket will come into effect at the beginning of 2005 according to the Nikkei. The move is expected to better reflect Russia"s trade situation, where trade with the U.S. only accounts for 5% of the total compared to Europe"s 50%. Recent USD weakness is seen to have played a part in expected move, and will likely make it easier for the Russian central bank to carry out its interventions to stabilize the currency. With the switch to this basket, Russian reserves estimated at around US$100 mln [i think it should read US$100 bln here]currently will have to be shifted around to reflect EUR"s prominence. Currently, USD maintains a 65% share of Russian foreign reserves and EUR 25%. Of Russian exports, 70% is denominated in USD. About 50% of imports, in contrast, are being paid out in EUR. --
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