Replies to post #15654 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[integrivest]

Agree ... totally confused.

[Zeev Hed]

Joemoney, how do yo come to the conclusion that people are confused? Augie suggested much lower prices "if" 1200 breaks, it has not broken, no confusion, Softie, and the Oracle are not confused, they still have a target of 800, and they may have the last laugh. But to characterize the thread as "everyone" was talking about 800 on the Naz, surely was a little of a "reach" (g), an certainly no confusion.

Zeev

[Sir Realist]

Hi Joe;

If in late Oct 2001 folks said: "we're going to 2090" and others said: "we're gonna hit 1200 next year", it might sound confusing, but they'd all be correct.

Day-to-day for the past month has been very confusing, certainly. But 1400, 1500 and spots between 1520 and 1600 have been called by several index charters for this quarter. Some, like me, have noted where lower support points are with the caveat "if the July bottom breaks". And some have indicated they believe it'll get much lower by October or next year.

For example, I'd put the odds above 90% we'll break 1000 by April and above 60% that we'll see it by January, at this moment. It's 50-50 that we could see 800 or lower by April. In my opinion, viewing mkt conditions, economic reports, war possibilities and via TA and historical charts, that's where things stand. Perhaps the next 3 months the conditions will get significantly more positive and fresh projections will emerge.

OTOH, if you refer to all investors and traders, I agree, many are confused. There's about two dozen folks here and on SI who I've observed over time with good records at index, sector or value calls. I read most everyone, but consider the advice of a few, MOST of the time. Generally, they're close.

And sometimes, we're all confused. Right now, options expiry has a lotta control over the daily events. After Friday, TA should provide more guidance without the gravity of FOMC, CEO statements and options pulling us around.