Replies to post #1380 on Daybreak Oil and Gas Inc (DBRM)

[xiws]

Done with the bashy-bashy exchanges?
I've been reading, and occasionally posting, for quite a while.
I've been buying too, and got some the other day at .105. I'm happy with that.
Yeah, I know that some folks pump, for fun or money. I don't really think that I've seen too much of that here.

Downside: I usually like your in depth market thoughts. Though, as I've said in a few of my posts, DBRM's production and revenue progress will be the only thing that really drives this up.

Maverick: I appreciate your general "positive credulity" - though I would be interested why you think .25 is a 2010 limit, if there is any basis other than gut feeling. The Two Triangle report didn't really have a good rationale for giving the short term rise up to a $1. I'd love it, but can't see the reasoning.

But I AM a bit tired of you to going at each other lately. Peace be with you.

As for dumping, the big volume of a few days ago does seem like some big holder cleared out. Who? Who knows. Big? Well, that's relative too. 600K shares @ $.10 is still only $60,000 total. Big, but not irrationally high if someone has a overall portfolio of $1M+ and finally decided they were done with DBRM for whatever reason and thought something else was a better play. Or just want cash because they think everything is going to crash again. Anyway, that big volume dropped back to the very low side again. So the big seller, whoever it was and why, is gone.

When I think of dumping I still get back to some of the share and deal stats: There just are not that many shares out there for any major party to have been dumping over the last year or so. Too much churn. Whoever had them would have run out, unless they bought more just to sell them again. Secondly, the latest pipes are quite old now, and didn't have enough shares in them to give enough for any of the participants to have enough shares to be a single big dumper this year. Maybe the company has given out some large number of shares to a creditor - and the clearance to sell them pretty quick. But SEC filings don't seem to show that in any large way.

So, I'm still curious, a bit disappointed, and STILL waiting for some really solid production volumes and revenue and a change in the cash position that doesn't make me a bit worried about another dilution.

But it DOES appear to be a good company, strong prospects, growing slower than I would like.
That is why I bought some more the other day.

[downsideup]

Yes. Since I was a kid.

"numismatist"... lol...

I agree. We do tend to focus, naturally, on the elements in the short term that we can see as the effort made and as the results from the current projects...

I'm not confused in the least why it is that the nature of their successes in the project efforts over the last year are under-appreciated. They did some "trading" of land holdings, swapped out partners, spent a whole lot of the cash they had building infrastructure... and, after all of that success, none of that effort appears to matter in making a positive difference on the bottom line, in BOPD or in $$$ terms ? Makes it look like they are stuck in neutral... Or, it means they are now really well prepared, and more solidly positioned than before... to begin having the work of the last year or two... begin to be reflected in the results of the efforts made... from here... that are still just beginning.

They are doing it the right way...

They've announced the efforts made and the targets in the current round of drilling. They've told us things seem to be going well enough... and now we're just waiting to learn what the results will mean in terms of production... BOPD... when they have and are able to announce those results.

Great. I expect things here might get a bit more fun, soon. That still isn't what my primary focus is, here... never has been since I began posting. My primary focus here, isn't the results of each of the specific projects taken in serial fashion, but the quality and focus, and the execution of the plan, in the larger effort. DBRM has first rate management... and I expect they will make a success of this company, as they have proven they can in past efforts. They have the experience, the talent, the ability,and the drive, and they do know what they are doing, how to do it right, and they are proceeding to do it... succeeding at each step. Mr. market doesn't value seeing results delivered from each of those steps the same way ? Go figure. That is the point... and why I am here, accumulating...

The recent effort to limit the discussion to the near term focus... and to question what sort of a coin it is they've found, and what it might be worth, limiting it to face value ? Grossly wrong, IMO, on the value questions... but wrong also for not "getting" what even incremental progress of that sort being admitted in "it's only a quarter, able to be bought for a dime"... means. Having even JUST that occurring here, now, leads to what in the longer term ? A slow start was always an inevitability, here... but, the momentum they'll pick up, now, maybe as they deliver some larger than expected early successes... is also an inevitability, IMO.

I'll happily agree I bought a quarter for a dime here this week... while still giggling a bit over the value I think that "quarter" has... that others might not see.

I guess if only a couple more of the 50 and 100 BOPD type producers they drill came in with 20 or 30 feet of pay each... and that was all they had lined up here in the way of their near term prospects... that probably would justify the $0.25 story and not much more... if you were that myopic... to think their prospects don't matter, and the numbers showing an increase in production, coming off the bottom, don't matter ?

Instead... they have a wide open field to explore... 3-D to ponder... in a situation any other junior would give eye teeth to have... with a management that knows what to do with it.

Drilling the horizontal was an unexpected trick... and it seems it was a little bit outside of the box in what some were expecting might happen next, here. I think it is creating a bit of confusion, still... even denial. That will likely persist here right up until the numbers they put up... in BOPD and $$$ in the quarterlies... means it won't...

You still won't find me wanting them to spend more $$$ on pumping the story instead of on finding and pumping oil...

I'll be happy enough to wait patiently for a bit to see what S#4H actually means in the numbers in the near term... before deciding what 375 feet of horizontal pay means about the larger value in the mid term, given this round really is still only like the second or third coin they've picked up... and none of them seem to have been properly dusted off yet ??? Still not going to be thinking that this round defines any sort of a limit in potential, rather than dusting off and taking a first look at one of the first of what will be many future finds...

More is good, still. A nice number will enable a bit more in the rate of acceleration out the gate, maybe generating a little faster pace than you might expect, from here, given the history and the pace over the last year or two... ? We'll see...

We'll find out soon enough what the last round of drilling will produce in BOPD... and in a year or two, with hindsight, we'll be able to see what sort of an impact that will have had in moving them along to bigger and better things, at a faster pace...

I'm tucking these shares away, putting them back there with my coin collection... not expecting to sell a one of them without getting a price that reflects the value I see in them...