Well lets call it the base model or similar rather than the Gorilla model - as if you associate these things with men they start defending it for the sake of defending it - you know egos and all that. So, hmm.. the base model.
Well, I'm trying to find out if there are any HepB drugs on the subsidy list and if that will affect any of their sales. Until that's clarified the base model only includes expansion growth - If others feel strongly it's not a problem to add appedix to the base model.
If we can work out what provinces they sold in last year and what provinces they sold in this year we might be able to get an idea on how much of 2009's growth is due to expansion and is organic growth within the previously entered region. I haven't tried to fathom this out and don't know if it's possible.
-- I think we may be doing this company (and us investors) injustice
-- by basically ignoring the continued growth of its most important
-- business segment which is the core business.
Good grief, that's the first time I've read that in my life I've been injust to shareholders :-) I go to every length to balance the views of what's available.
Ok, when I've finshed sticking in the 2% gross margins I suspect I will end up with numbers in the 90 cent region. The valuation would put it North of $13 - for a $4 stock a 225% rise. Meanwhile the company is estimating much lower than that (60s or 70s I'm tired and not going to go through my spreadsheet as will make a mistake) - if you want to knock some heads together I would start with them. It's not my model that's dis-serving investors and keeping the pps down - I'm thinking the uplisting will help a lot as well.
There might actually be good reasons that only the managment know? Dunno.. Either way, I think the market will want to see some more numbers before we see double digits no matter what model we come up with. Hence, I'm relaxed I have a base case that values the company well above $4 and I can review this come the next quarters results and the conferance call.
I'm not going to get worried about 90 cents vs 100 cents vs 130 cents for a $4 stock with management estimates all well lower than ours.
Do people really think a 90 cent estimate is holding this back?
rich
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