WORLD AFFAIRS 'Chatter' hints of an imminent U.S. airstrike against Iran
BY DANIEL SNEIDER dsneider@mercurynews.com
Counterterror specialists look for ''chatter'' in Islamic extremist circles preceding an attack. There is a lot of chatter going on today in Washington -- only this time, it is about an American attack on Iran.
In seminars and hallways, there is eager anticipation of an airstrike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Sure, the talk goes, we may not get all those buried nuclear labs. But a few waves of cruise missiles and bombers will set Iran's program back several years, enough time to pursue regime change in Tehran.
The Iran buzz prompted an unusual statement by British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw last week that any attack on Iran would be ''inconceivable,'' adding: ''I don't see any circumstances in which military action would be justified against Iran, full stop.'' He spoke as negotiators from Britain, France and Germany were about to meet in Paris with the Iranians. The Europeans are offering a package of concessions, from trade to nuclear-power plants, to get Iran to agree to an indefinite suspension of its program to enrich uranium.
The ability to enrich uranium is not in itself proof of a nuclear-weapons program, but it would put Iran only months away from being able to build a bomb. Iranian leaders, while denying any interest in nuclear weapons, portray the enrichment program as a matter of national security.
''The centers of global power, who wish to monopolize the entire world, are opposed to any development which helps a nation to achieve national independence, self-reliance and national strength,'' Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said at Friday prayers in Tehran.
Despite the tough talk, however, Iran's negotiators have reportedly reached a tentative agreement with the Europeans on a temporary suspension of their program, to be followed by a phased shutdown.
Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, was eagerly awaiting the outcome of those talks. He is currently drafting a status report on Iran's nuclear program, to be issued tomorrow, ahead of an IAEA meeting on Nov. 25. The report will confirm that Iran has been experimenting with all phases of the nuclear-fuel cycle but that there is still no concrete evidence of a link to a weapons program.
Bush administration hard-liners are dismissive of ElBaradei and of the European-led talks. They expect the talks ultimately to fail -- while refusing repeated entreaties from ElBaradei and the Europeans to directly engage the Iranians. They aim to head to the U.N. Security Council to impose sanctions against Iran.
But the case against Iran is far from clear and unlikely to gain full support, including from Russia and China. If the sanctions bid fails, those Bush officials will argue that the United Nations has once again wilted in the face of a proliferation threat, a la Iraq.
ElBaradei continues to trust President Bush's assurances that the United States sees only a diplomatic solution to this problem. But he did not hesitate, in an address delivered last Thursday to Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, to draw sharp lines with the Bush administration.
ElBaradei pointedly laid out the lessons of Iraq. ''The first point to be made is that the inspections were working,'' he said. That is confirmed, he argued, by the report issued by the administration's Iraq Survey Group, confirming the IAEA's conclusion before the war began that the Iraqi nuclear program was shut down.
''The second point to be made is that we need to exercise maximum restraint before resorting to military force,'' he continued. ``The Iraq experience should tell us that unless extreme conditions exist to justify pre-emptive action against a suspected weapons-of-mass-destruction program, diplomacy in all its forms, including maximum pressure, coupled with credible verification, should be the primary avenue of choice.''
The next few weeks will probably determine what the avenue of choice will be with Iran. Every diplomatic option should be fully explored. But if Iran fails to reach a deal with the IAEA and the Europeans, the current chatter favoring a military solution will rise to a din.
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