Are you encouraged by the latest COT report that shows a 5% move in both long and short commercial positions (in the "right" direction)? ===============================================================
Hi ardent, Encouraged? Hmmmmmm..... not really! But I'm not too discouraged either, although by focusing on the relatively narrow measure of the small speculators (yellow bar on graph) rather than the Commercials (brown bar), I see it as being less 'friendly' than it has been for the last couple of weeks.
What I find most interesting is that both the supposedly "smart money" large speculative net long (blue bar) and the commercial net short positions decreased while the net long positions of the small specs increased.
To my way of thinking, not exactly what I would characterize as a harbinger of hope for the gold bulls. <g>
As I'm sure you know, today's report covers the period ending last Tuesday (11-2), a day that had the PoG touch $417 before closing above $420 and saw the COMEX Gold Futures Open Interest dropping by 14,354 contracts from Monday's close.
So even though the total OI decreased by 8,317 contacts from week to week, the net long position of the small specs increased by 2,827 contracts for the same period.
While this number in itself is not particularly worrisome, it may be worthwhile noting that yesterday the OI increased by 12,752 contracts and as of last night, the COMEX OI was back to a new all time high of 323,653 contracts.
The question is how many of these 'new' contracts were bought and sold by the "dumb money" small speculators?
Unfortunately, we won't know that until next Friday's report and though the "mo" seems to favor the upside, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the PoG 'screw' the late arrivals and fall back to the $410 area or lower.
Especially, if the USD should somehow catch an updraft from the 'riggers'.....
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