Replies to post #100 on Triangle Pete Corp. (fka TPLMQ)

[EdF]

Good deal...added a few more today.

[downsideup]

I think Exxon probably got it right, for Exxon. I think TPLM probably now has it right, too, for TPLM... to be moving toward an shorter term interest in oil now, vs. gas. Economic recovery and limited supply of oil will mean higher oil prices, as the global economic recovery takes hold. Growing supply of natural gas in the U.S. will mean the opposite in gas markets, whether in absolute or relative terms.

Natural gas supply IS going to grow... as more share based supply comes on line. That sets up a problem in timing, between the growth of supply, and the shift in demand that needs to occur for that GROWTH in supply to be more than balanced by growth in demand.

Gas is a LONG TERM play. But, for now, we're still coming off HIGH PRICES... with both short term and long term elements. In the short term, prices were high into 2008 like everything else. In the long term, prices have been high because supply wasn't what it is now. We're still fairly early in the curve in transition from supply based on high cost tight shale gas, and conventional gas, to larger supply growth from lower cost higher volumes from the new fractured shales.

The other drivers... are more unique to Exxon in terms of the timing of the ability to be able to buy something like XTO or CHK. They have HUGE piles of cash... and have complex calculations to make re the long term that include the price of gas, but also the risk of holding piles and piles of dollars, versus the various opportunity costs of wanting or needing to make the move to buy an XTO later. An all shares deal ? Where is the risk for Exxon ?

The drivers of Exxon's timing... won't mean that what they have to consider should matter to you in what you consider in the timing that is likely to matter to you. Maybe the move we see in CHK now also makes sense, given others in the market might have timing drivers like Exxon's ? I don't think it is going to matter much, still, for most juniors, or for consumers...

The time lines in the transitions that will matter from here... are projecting events that need to happen over a period of time that is measured in terms of years and decades... not months.