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tykundegex

12/13/09 5:45 PM

#14552 RE: Estimated_Prophet #14550

Indeed, John seemed to mention $2.2m per site, but it was unclear if that was revenue or profit. I'm not sure how they arrive at that number though.

Also, he did say that their math was based on 20-tons / day, which is a minimum as it represents a single batch per processor. JVs will strive to run 2-3 batches / processor / day (i.e 40-60 tons) assuming they have adequate feedstock, and JBI claims to be "locking supply agreements up", which makes me smile even if its ONLY in 3 urban areas.

In some cases they get paid for taking plastic. In some states they don't pay 35% tax. In most cases JV's will operate more than 2 batches per day and run more than 260 days per year.

Still, if you take my prior numbers, the 25 initial JVs with a P/E of 50 would put JBII at $18.75 (with 50m O/S).

I am also keen to learn more about the math behind their numbers, but what makes this an exciting investment is that John and his team don't seem to care much about convincing people that what it is they say is true, and seem to focus all their energy on just executing and proving it.

Kinda reminds me of Google's "do no evil" mantra in the early days...

S.

carguy

12/13/09 5:54 PM

#14553 RE: Estimated_Prophet #14550

EP

I remember JB stating the company gets 25% of each JV off GROSS revenues, not NET! JV expenses shouldn't be an issue. So assuming 20T/day from 2 machines or annualized 6MT, that would be 2.2m from each JV + franchise fee (400K) which you should expand your matrix based on the first 50 or so JV's. Obviously we will not be realizing all that revenue at first as the biggest question will how fast the JVs come online. Also I still question the initial fluidity of the feedstock....but "you build it, and they will come" should apply in some respect as businesses and municipalities will only reduce their waste expenses thus saving them significant money in their budgets. Just my thoughts....

cg

stonehenge

12/13/09 6:34 PM

#14557 RE: Estimated_Prophet #14550

It's 20 tons/day/site (2 processors) (see CC; Q&A's):
A: (John) "Yes. Consider that a P2O site will be producing a minimum of 20,000 liters per day (per two processors)."