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h_man_investor

11/21/09 10:47 PM

#1126 RE: zino #1124

Way off, Bro.

The company made ~$10mm is operating profit for the quarter. The $191mm in marked-to-market gains are not sustainable and cannot be simply annualized. The fixed income market has come a long way in the last year- spreads on high grade and high yield are tighter than pre-lehman bankuptcy.

The rest of the asset backed holdings of theirs still has a ways to go but there is a funny thing about bonds- they can't go above par (I'm being general here- my point is that when a bond goes from $70 to $90 it can't continue going at that rate to $200).

Look at the ABX to see how much more potential gain there are in the portfolio. But it ain't $200mm a quarter.

And more to my point, you say "debt markets stable now" and that would imply no more appreciation in the portfolio (or very little including discount bonds amortizing towards par).

The only bogey here is that some of the portfolio is adjustable rate and when (if) the Fed starts to rais rates interest earned will increase.