Replies to post #51072 on Expo Holdings Inc. (EXPH)

[DD-214]

now that's a scenario I can live with, thanks for your insight..

now we wait for JD's next move..

[99leadballoons]

there are three factors for investors to weigh here in my opinion.

1. What % of Exph is Etc worth? (x)

2. How much does the fact that these wont be free trading affect their worth? (y)

3. How many shares will there be in the new company? (z)

So to determine what effect this will have you use

Value= EXPH PPS*(1-x)+[(EXPH PPS)*x(1-y)*(100,000,000/z)]

So if an investor thinks Etc is worth 25% of EXPH and thinks the lack of liquidity has a negative 20% effect and thinks there will be 200,000,000 shares of Etc spinoff

you get (.0085)*.75 + [.25*(.0085)*(1-.2)*(100,000,000/200,000,000)] which means the new EXPH value is .006375 and the new value of Etc would be .00085 which would make the value of EXPH immediately before the record date .007225 and .006375 after.

Obviously any investor that values it this way should buy if the price is below that. People can change the values however they see fit, but the formula should be sound. Also I used .0085 because that was the PPS before the news. If people think that was high or low they can also adjust accordingly.

[dffhogs]

The one ETC share for ten EXPH shares does not diminish the value of EXPH shares purely because ALL revenues by ECT are Expo Holdings' revenues .

Did I miss something? I thought ETC was going to be a seperate private company.

[zinn21]

How do you include a privately held spin off earnings in a publicly held company? They are two separate entities.