Replies to post #4415 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi J,
The Idiot Wave says it's a 'turning point' of some type. Since the data doesn't include a bubble of the magnetude we experienced in 1997 through 2000, I can't say if the war's over yet with any degree of certainty.

However, for the next 3 months we should see a generally upward trend. It might extend to 6 months but the clouds form in the IW's crystal ball that far out. Historically, Low Risk periods have been followed by good 3 to 6 month performance. In some cases the uptrend continues for longer, but not without the IW warning of high risk periods along the way.

My guess is we'll see a high risk event by the end of October or early November. Probably the trend will flatten at that point while a consolidation occurs.

Thanks for your continuing contribution.

Best regards, Tom