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Manti

11/17/09 9:18 PM

#48330 RE: Anvil #48272

I notice you didn't get any replies, so I'll do so. I agree with most of your points, but would like to carry them a little further.

If you take your 5x leverage of the EBITDA, and assume a 10% interest on the note, that still leaves 10% that can go to repayment of principle. That's pretty darn good.

As far as collateral goes, I agree they will have an interest in the whole company, and also control the preferreds. What will that mean for the commons? That's a little tough to say without numbers, but let's assume that qasp commons are worth zero, and the assets are worth the purchase price, so the book value is zero, since the assets equal liabilities. That means we're left with the 10% earnings that would go to paying back the principle on the note, or 7 million/year. With the entire 750 million AS as the OS, that's just under a penny/year. Put any PE multiple on it you like, and it's a whole lot better than where we are.

Perhaps we are buying Dean's personal dream. At least he's letting us share it.