Replies to post #157 on Biostar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BSPM)

[viking86]

Rich:

Your calc looks fine to me. I did exactly the same thing except I mistakenly did the calc for 10 months instead of 9 months (since the 7.4m was revenue until Sep 30, not Oct30). If corrected for that error, I get basically same result as you = 11.8x10/9=13.1/outlet day.

So we can assume $12/outlet day (or roughly 4400/yr per outlet vs. the company's recent estimate of 2000/yr) to be conservative (but not as overly conservative as per Company's PR) going forward. This yields a projected revenue from the retail outlets of:

11m for 2009 with 5000 outlets
33m for 2010 with 10000 outlets (of which 5000 to be addded during the year)
44m for 2011 with 10000 outlets completed by EOY 2010, none outlets added in 2011 (which is probably not true).

All of this is based on the 7.4m reported for the first 9 months of 2009 with 3500+ outlets open. The avg store sales may of course improve dramatically with time with enhanced brand recognition as more outlets open. But at least this gives us a floor for 2010 and 2011 rev. projections. The real question now is how to estimate the other 75% rev (non-outlet rev.) going forward, considering the tremendous growth of their business and the constant addition of new drugs in coming years.