Replies to post #157 on Lehman Bros. 5.67 D Series Preferred ( fka LEHDQ)

[lucmariepierre]

is it enough to see the new balance sheet ?

i would like to know your point of view on the manner to calculate : the lehman 'case is different or we have also to include all the claims :

i mean lehman has only 15.7 billions dollars and claims are concentrate in lbhi and ? .

how all of these are going to be dealed :

i'm sared to see our stocks going down each day. It doesn't feel so good to me.

did you sell some of your position ?



Back of the envelope calculation (very rough numbers from someone that should not even be attempting to try to estimate value left over for the preferreds. Do your own DD.)

The proforma post bk shows a book value of $8 bil. If CIT were to sell for 1.5 times book that would lead to a market cap of $12bil.

Those claims above ours that are not going to be paid in full, but at 70 cents on the dollar is about $36.7 bil. At 70% ($25.7bil) that leaves a balance of $11 bil that they will be due in stock. That leaves $1 bil to cover the preferreds shares claims of about $2.8 bil in Series A,B, and D. That is about 35 cents on the dollar in CVR.

Of course if CIT sells for not much less than 1.5X book we are screwed. More than 1.5X book and we get very happy.

Again, these are very rough numbers. Just wanted to share my thought process.

[lucmariepierre]

do they need to use their 15.7 billions dollars to pay the claims ?

what's difference between claims and balance sheet ?