Replies to post #85719 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[BullNBear52]

A poll I saw in the news last night said that 25% of the voters from the NY district were undecided. I don't see those voters following Palin, Rush and Beck and voting for the conservative.

The republicans are simply kicking moderates out of the party. On NPR last night they interviewed an elderly woman from the NY district and she stated she didn't have a problem with gay marriage.

The republican conservatives are alienating a whole host of people. They might as well just call themselves the good old white boys plus Sarah.

[StephanieVanbryce]

NY-23: Teabagging Republicans pick a strange ground zero

by Jed Lewison
Tue Nov 03, 2009

The strangest thing about today's election is that Republicans have come to see NY-23 as ground zero in their bid for renewed relevance. Leave aside the fact that the GOP candidate has withdrawn from the race and endorsed the Democrat, these teabagging Republicans have convinced themselves that electing a conservative like Glenn Beck Doug Hoffman in NY-23 will prove that they have come back from the dead.

To make the case that a Hoffman victory would be remarkable, teabaggers point to the Obama-McCain vote in the district, which tilted narrowly to Obama. (President Obama carried NY-23 by 5 points, compared to a 27-point margin in the state as a whole.) But the thing that teabaggers don't like to mention is that for at least the past three decades, Democrats have been unable to break the 38% mark in any election. Check out the Democratic congressional performance in the district since 1982:

2008 - 35%
2006 - 37%
2004 - 29%
2002 - 0%
2000 - 23%
1998 - 21%
1996 - 25%
1994 - 18%
1992 - 21%
1990 - 38%
1988 - 25%
1986 - 0%
1984 - 29%
1982 - 28%

(NY-23 was known as NY-26 from 1982-1990 and NY-24 from 1992-2000. Data: Office of the Clerk.) [ http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/election.html ]

That span includes two open seat races -- 1982 and 1992 -- but Democrats couldn't crack the 30% barrier in either of those years.

Now, in 2009, the Democratic Party -- for the first time in decades, if not ever -- actually has a shot winning the seat.

Even if Hoffman manages to win this election, how can the GOP possibly claim tomorrow's results as some sort of big win? Sure, teabaggers will be excited that they rolled Scozzafava with a right-wing loon, but they'll also have turned NY-23 into much more competitive seat than if Scozzafava had won. Suddenly, the NRCC will be forced to defend a seat they had expected to take for granted.

If that sort of scenario is what qualifies for a victory these days in GOP circles, then this won't be a story of a party that has finally found its footing: it'll be the story of a party that doesn't have any idea how far it's fallen.

Update (7:57AM): And if Hoffman does win, it's going to embolden the teabaggers to go after every self-styled moderate Republican in the country. A Hoffman victory will send a clear message to Crist, Simmons, Kirk, and even Snowe: You had better watch out. [ http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/11/3/799952/-Let-The-Civil-War-Begin ]

Race tracker wiki: NY-23 [ http://www.opencongress.org/wiki/NY-23 ]

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http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/11/2/799836/-NY-23:-Teabagging-Republicans-pick-a-strange-ground-zero