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StockDude1

10/26/09 12:38 PM

#4317 RE: LongCYRX #4316

I agree, I think the market after 4Q earnings won't do so well. I dont think will see much change in the economy. Everything is still to expensive and

WE STILL DONT MAKE ANYTHING HERE!!!! Lets start making more crap now the dollar is cheaper.

I think the SP and Dow are up a bit high right now. I think will see a strong 1Q decrease and then another bit of an increase 2Q 2010 back to where we are now.

I also see home price taking another bit of a dip then to maybe rebounding in another 2 maybe 3 years.
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tigertrader

10/26/09 1:25 PM

#4319 RE: LongCYRX #4316

Long: Yeah, there's an incredible disconnect between the economy and the market, especially from a valuation standpoint, but as counter-intuitive as it seems, it could continue. At this point it's purely technical, with little or no fundamental justification.
As long as the dollar continues to fall, equities will continue to adjust upward. For now, at least, there does not seem to be much downside risk in equities, because of the Bernanke put. That is every time the market sells off, Bernanke adds liquidity, and supports the market.
Additionally, now that the dollar is the funding currency for carry trades, foreign banks will continue to use cheap dollars to fund investments in U.S. Equities.
Obviously, the market belies the fact that the U.S. government is in an untenable fiscal position, as Bernanke continues to print money and the fiscal deficit continues to grow.Perhaps eventually, the negative correlation between the dollar and equities will end, and there will be lower valuations in equities, but who knows when.