The look and feel of this market, the number and kinds of support levels, the flow of moving averages, the way the VIX has been crushed below its support level--all this still suggests to me a market intent on breaking above the weekly down-trend line and putting in higher highs for the 80-week cycle high. See down-trend line in chart below. If the market plays it just right, it can pull back and build a base closer to the down-trend line and the bust up and through it.
I don't pretend to know the future. I'm absolutely dedicated to reading the market as it is now. If in a future now the seed pattern suggests a more bearish possibility, I'll be the first to broadcast it. Honestly, I'm getting tired of this Johnny-one-note market, but I suspect the game remains entirely the same all the way into February or even March 2010.
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