Well thought out post. The user experience is absolutely key. That is why some of the competition is working to have the apps pre-installed. However, that isn't enough since the app then needs to a better job that most apps available today.
In meetings last week, I saw this focus on "2D" barcodes. It was the word to use. Everyone wants to tie their company to them. However, I am seeing mobile technology catch up to the requirements of 1 dim codes. The cameras are better and processors are able to decode them on the phone. However, try to suggest that the need for 2D is fading away and folks get very resistant. Yet, you look at the US adoption of mobile barcodes and the majority volume of apps and campaigns are in the 1D space.
This is very important to NeoMedia and the indirect argument. The one real advantage of the indirect model is that 99% of printed codes are indexes. This is why Shopsavvy and RedLaser have taken off - they don't have to wait for anyone to adopt new barcodes. They don't have to train consumers to recognize them. As camera and applications improve, there is real opportunity for indirect to finally get its footing.
Thanks for the posts, good reading.