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TREND1

10/10/09 11:01 AM

#3912 RE: mrnatural #3911

mrnatural
Very interesting chart.
The Slope(14) is very interesting in Mar 2009 and July 2009

PS: If there is some wrong with chart JLS will find it.
JLS has an eye for such things.

PS2: Welcome to the board.

TREND1

10/10/09 12:50 PM

#3914 RE: mrnatural #3911

mrnatural
Did you just get a sell (Why green for sell)on Friday 10/9/09 using MA(7,5) ?


PS: Do your charts auto update ?
Why ?
Because I am thinking of calling it SYSTEM 13 mrnatural

JLS

10/10/09 3:59 PM

#3926 RE: mrnatural #3911

mrnatural,

I don't see much value in ratios like that, especially in the short term (weeks), and especially daily -- too many variables and short-term correlation is very poor.

For instance, you wrote "money is flowing from corporate bonds to equities", even though it is both corporate bonds and 20+ year treasuries (TLT) in the chart, and not equities. How can you conclude money is flowing to equities? And which equities, U.S. or foreign? The problem is you can't. I also think it is a little bit late in the daily cycle to be sending a buy signal.

The ratio in your chart is between investment-grade corporates and long treasuries. It says nothing about cash, money markets, junk bonds, U.S. treasuries less than 20 years, and investments in foreign corporations or their government bonds -- all of the things that are alternatives to both U.S. corporates and long U.S. treasuries.

Actually, I liked my comparison between LQD and $SPX much better -- the correlation was very good over the period of the chart. However, I only brought it up for discussion purposes, not because I believe it.

So here's an alternative idea. Suppose we plot the ratio $SPX:TLT. Are equities about to take off, or is a triple-top forming? Maybe it’s just an SPX sell signal since price ratio is at the top of a its channel?