Like any investment this is no exception - by the time it's painfully obvious most of the upside will have been made. The trick is finding ones with hgih probabilities and low downside risk. It always amazes me people that buy a stock after a 1000% rally into a FDA decision like a PDUFA
Most of the % of gains are made when something is relatively unknown. I ma not be 100% right here - but for this particular case I won't need to be to make substantial profits from these levels. I really do think they have a potential blockbuster and I look forward to seeing data from a larger phase 2 trial next year. Right now - if you think it or not - there's big $$$ that does believe it and there's no negative news to make it pull back any significant amount.
It's really just a potential of how good data will be received ratehr then any chance of data or news that will be percieved as a negative. So with all that cash and little valued built into TH-302 I believe there's a lot of upside yet to be priced in. I view TH-302 as an appreciating asset which will just become more valuable with each new piece of data - which will make it more and more obvious that the drug is safe and has substantial efficacy, and since its a novel MoA it's easy to believe that at some point the excitement around it will build and the value of the drug with it. Who knows if its 6 months or 16 months when they price in 100m value into the drug, which isnt unreasonable and I believe we will see in the next few months as teh top line data/results are published.
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