frog...Allow me to point out a couple of flies in your ointment.
Your argument is classic "Efficient Market Theory" (dates back to the 60's BTW...how old did you say you were? lol).
According to that theory, "...markets are efficient and current, meaning that prices always reflect all information..." The problem is that under that theory, it is impossible to beat the market because prices already incorporate and reflect all relevant information. So if you accept the Efficient Market Theory, there is NO SUCH THING as a "Value" stock. Morningstar will be very disturbed to here that BTW...lol
I'm surprised your buddy spook hasn't taken issue with your position as most of the opposition to this theory comes from the technical analysts, although as a Fundamentalist, I have a problem with it as well.
The biggest argument against the efficient market theory is that many investors base their expectations on past performance. And stock markets (and individual stocks) are very often driven by investor sentiment and expectation. Witness the drop in a security's price when it fails to meet "expectations" of the analysts.
In a global sense you might argue that THE MARKET is Efficient, but certainly in a micro sense, and particularly with OTCBB stocks, undervalued companies are everywhere. If you look around you can find find them. That's what EVERY Value Fund Manager is paid to do, and their success is the best evidence that the Efficient Market Theory, as applied to individual stocks, is "bunk". JMHO, as always...
Later,
W2P
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