Replies to post #84278 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: PARD

I am more concerned about other factors that I may not have thought about. I think the lack of a partner until now is both concerning and encouraging. Management has not diluted yet and financially the company is not sound so they need money. So it is encouraging that dilution has not occurred. On the other hand if the outcome is so obvious I also wonder why a partner hasn't swooped in yet. Management wants the best deal possible so they seem to be willing to wait, or so they say.

I tend to side with your latter thought as I think it's extremely valid for you to question why no partner has come on board to partner the drug at this late stage of the game. I'm normally quite skeptical if a biotech company commences a Phase 3 trial on its own because it hasn't been able to partner a drug after Phase 2 results, assuming PoC has been achieved.

I'm sure there are a number of examples where smaller biotechs have commenced a Phase 3 trial on their own that succeeded, but I would imagine that there is a greater percentage of success found in those Phase 3 trials that were conducted by a large partner. I.e., drugs that show the most promise and have the best chance of success are normally the ones that draw the lucrative partnerships.

I would be skeptical that management is holding off on a partnership because they want the best deal possible inasmuch as PARD can't afford to risk a Phase 3 failure for picoplatin since there is no other drug to fall back on and there is little cash left.

I have no skin in this one and I really wish you the best of luck as you encourage a lot of discussion on the board with your posts. I've been wrong on several of these Phase 3 calls of late as I didn't think DNDN or HGSI had a prayer to succeed in their respective Phase 3 trials (HGSI still has another Phase 3 hurdle to clear though). So, that may bode well for you. ; ) My overall point is that Phase 3 trials are a crapshoot and, in this particular case, there's nothing left to fall back on if things don't work out. That said, best of luck to you on this one and I hope things work out for you.

[DewDiligence]

PARD is holding a CC at 8am ET Monday to announce the phase-3 results in SCLC:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Poniard-Pharmaceuticals-to-prnews-4221213046.html?x=0&.v=1