Replies to post #4208 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Patrick Bateman]

Here's another for ya (and on an earnings basis, even with est cuts, it looks fairly reasonable if not downright cheap):

07:57 ET NVDA NVIDIA lowered to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley (21.30)
Morgan Stanley downgrades to EQUAL-WEIGHT from Overweight amid weak PC demand, GPU pricing pressure, and expectations for an Xbox inventory correction. Firm reduces FY03 est to $1.45 from $1.95 and FY04 to $1.65 from $2.25. Thinks stock remains attractive from long-term perspective. Price target $35.



Virtually Yours,

Pat Bateman

[AKvetch]

JNJ; AMGN: Johnson & Johnson reports rise in blood disorders among Eprex users (JNJ) 50.10: Reuters reports that the number of kidney patients treated with anaemia drug who have developed a rare but serious blood disorder is continuing to rise. In a letter to European doctors, J&J said it was now aware of 141 reports of suspected pure red-blood cell aplasia (including one death) in patients treated with Eprex. This represents an increase of 17 cases since the end of April. Most of the adverse reactions have been in patients given skin injections. Amgen (AMGN), which markets the drug in the U.S. under the brand name Epogen for kidney dialysis patients, said on Monday that there had been only two reports of aplasia in patients. [Briefing.Com]

[ajs]

Zeev,

What's your outlook for today? Looks to me like a 50+ day.

TIA.

[Public Heel]

Ze'ev re downgrades....

I have built a database of all upgrades and downgrades over the last 18 months (about 16k, at the moment). I also have subsequent performance data. If ever you want to know how a particular broker has done when making a particular recommendation, I'll be happy to tell you.

BTW, overall, neither downgrades or upgrades are contrary indicators. However, downgrades tend to be less accurate than upgrades (even in a bear market, surprisingly). I think that's because the upgrades are anticipatory, while the downgrades are more likely to be reactive, and the reaction often comes too late.

[Tim Lamb]

Hi Zeev:

On ELN's spike down two weeks ago I took a position. In research they have at least 1 floorless. One that has to be paid next Dec (actually a window where the bond holders can require conversion @ that time). This debt is $875M (US).

They also have a couple of SPE where they are on the hook for the debt (as far as I can tell there is no floorless in these and management didn't disclose one in their annual stmt).

My positions are under $2 and I wouldn't chase it here but you may want to look @ it because if the company is successful in raising cash (selling assets) and cutting expenses it may have an ANCR/WSTL/VLNC type experience.

The company is not facing an immediate liquidity crisis. They have about 9 months before the pressure really starts. Amazing prior management would have been sucked into a floorless cause their financial position should have precluded it.

Just an idea.

Tim

[tipit11]

Looks like anyone who was not long overnight, has left a bunch of money on the table. Can anyone give me some ideas how to play this. What time of the morning is the normal low. There has got to be a way to make a buck or 2 on this Naz up 29 points. Of course it might be just a G and C? Any ideas?