Do you ever look at fibonnaci's? If so, I note that the market has retraced 50% of it's drop from the recent high. It did the exact same thing in 2003 into 2004, 2004 started the year with about 6 months of drift down after hitting 50%. This was during the go-go years of merger mania and house flipping flim flam riches.
I expect the next 6 months to be similar to the first 6 months of 2004, only this time there won't be any turn and run-up. This time I think it will be stagnation for months and years that bleeds it down.
Yes, I think this matches what you say.