Replies to post #13179 on Intel Corp (INTC)

[SemiconEng]

Semi if you have start with these four facts:
1) Intel is warning
2) 15 other Semiconductor companies are warning
3) PC Industry is booming based on revisions to June estimates (IDC)
4) AMD is not warning
And you apply principles of Occam's Razor, what conclusion do you come up with?
I guess we will wait and see -- its not too far off.


I prefer to apply "Principles Of Intuitive Logic". If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, and acts like a duck, it's probably a duck. Most likely, it will also swim like a duck, even if it (and others) claim that it's different then the 15 other ducks, in the same flock. You're right about one thing, we'll soon see if the duck is fooling itself...... and others.

[wbmw]

banker, Re: 1) Intel is warning
2) 15 other Semiconductor companies are warning
3) PC Industry is booming based on September revisions to rosy June estimates (IDC)
4) AMD is not warning

And you apply the principles of Occam's Razor, what conclusion do you come up with?

Without any other kind of data, it would seem to imply that AMD has taken up the slack of the entire semiconductor industry. Knowing better, I would have to dismiss such an unlikely scenario.

The truth may be that AMD will stick to their estimates, but also that PC numbers are likely to be very back-end weighted (as they are in Q3) with most of the momentum spilling over into Q4. We'll know for sure when these companies announce their forecasts.

[alan81]

Both will claim they were correct...
because the criteron is currently not well defined.
If we look at analyst estimates for Intel we see:
average and then spread...
Earnings: $0.27 (-7.5%, +22%)
Revenue: $8.45B (-.6%, +0.7%)

For AMD we get a huge variation with:
Earnings: $0.14 (-36%, +43%)
Revenue: $1.34 (-3.8%, +4.5%)
Intel adjusted their guidance by about 5%, which is well within the error people are able to predict what AMD does. With such uncertainty in the numbers it would not make sense for AMD to do an update for a mere 5%...
Everything is fine can mean they are not that different than expectations:-) If you guys are willing to pony up some numbers now that set the goalposts for being right or wrong I would find that interesting!
--Alan