Replies to post #13164 on Intel Corp (INTC)

[tecate]

Except For AMD",

Lord knows, but maybe AMD has taken marketshare away from Intel? I dunno, I can't understand why AMD is the only not to adjust, perhaps YOY server sales help them... who knows.

[Tenchu]

Semi, I don't understand why you are taking any measure of comfort, however slim, in the malaise of other tech companies. There are two problems:

1) It's worse news for INTC if its depressed stock price is due to a general tech slowdown instead of its own execution problems or product portfolio. At least in the latter case, the problems are all under Intel's control.

2) For AMD, the difference between missing and beating expectations is very small. Plus most everyone in Wall Street is expecting AMD to miss, so if they do, that's not a big deal (barring any possibility of bankruptcy, which I don't think is likely).

Personally, I don't expect AMD to miss this quarter, given how Intel is practically holding the door wide open for AMD in major market segments. And if that's the case, I'd hate to see the "geniuses" like fictionnotfacs returning.

Tenchu

[I_banker]

Semi,

Perhaps you can comment on how your supposition and this report (not to mention Dell's & HP's statement on the quarter) can be reconciled.

IDC Raises '04 PC Growth View, Trims '05
Monday September 27, 4:31 pm ET

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Shipments of personal computers this year will be higher than previously anticipated, boosted by the strongest demand from businesses in five years, research firm IDC said on Monday.

But slower growth is still seen in the long term, led by a slump in U.S. consumer demand, after a cooling in sales that came as the overall economy started to recover.

Total 2004 PC shipments are expected to reach 176.5 million, up 14.2 percent from 154.6 million in 2003, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

IDC said shipment growth of 17.2 percent in the commercial market in the second quarter was the highest since 1999, and the fourth consecutive quarter over 13 percent.

In the past year, corporations have finally started upgrading PCs that were bought ahead of the date change to 2000, waiting longer than they have in the past after the technology recession that began in 2001.

"Even with the slowdown in consumer activity, commercial growth has led IDC to increase projections for total 2004 shipment growth from a June estimate of 13.5 percent," the research firm said.

Despite the 2004 increase, IDC trimmed its growth estimates for 2005 slightly to 10.5 percent from 10.7 percent, and projections for growth in future years remain at less than 10 percent as the industry continues to mature.

Global consumer PC growth is expected to slow to 8.7 percent in 2005 from 13.3 percent in 2003. In the same period, U.S. growth is seen easing to 5.7 percent from 17.3 percent.

"Strong growth in Western Europe and Rest of World played a significant role in boosting second-quarter results, while growth in the United States missed forecasts and slipped into single-digits," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, in a statement.

IDC noted that in Western Europe growth should remain strong as the recovery continues to be supported by a strong euro, while slow growth is seen in Japan while business spending remains conservative.

In the United States, IDC said it expects corporate demand for PCs to remain strong, with double-digit growth. However, the growth in shipments of PCs to the consumer market is expected to "slow significantly" from the recovery-driven growth in the second half of 2003.

In the Asia Pacific region excluding Japan, commercial growth is also forecast to lead the recovery, IDC said.

IDC also said that the high growth in recent quarters was partly the result of the depressed market in recent years, adding that as the market recovery matures, year-over-year comparisons will become more difficult.


http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040927/tech_pcdemand_2.html